So the Breakouts Happened in the Forex Market Finally

by Vahid | Forex Market Analysis and Signals | Tuesday, February 5th, 2008

Hello my friends :)

So did you enjoy the breakouts? I saw some of you succeeded to take the proper positions and make some money. If you were not on time enough to take the proper position or you lost money due to taking a wrong position don’t be upset or disappointed. You will be able to take the advantage of the next opportunities.

Just keep in your mind that if you are losing more than what you make, you have to stop trading with the real account. One of my friends who is a very experienced trader says that you are qualified to trade with a real account only if you can triple a demo account. It doesn’t matter how long does it take to triple a demo account. Two months or one year. As soon as you can do that, you are a forex trader.

I know this rule is a little tough but it has to be like that because even the beginners can make some good trades sometimes and add a few thousands of dollars to their demo accounts. This may cause them to think that they can start trading with the real account and then lose money. I heard from one my other friends that one of his friends lost about $200,000 in four days recently. This is terrible, isn’t it? He can be rich but losing $200,000 is a disaster for anybody even a rich man.

Fundamentals: Tomorrow at 8:30 AM - Productivity-Prel

1. Euro against US Dollar (EUR-USD)

3:54am GMT

So finally it broke the 1st Feb candlestick low price and went down. This is what we have been waiting for it since long time ago. Currently it is above the 261.80% level. You have to be careful not to lose your profit.

The 4hrs shows that the price is around the 50% level. Nobody knows if these support lines will act and will stop the price but 4hrs shows that the price is stopped from going down. So be careful not to lose the profit you have made. Keep your short position if the price went lower than the green line and close it if the price went higher than the red line.

The one hour shows the ascending triangle which we expect to act as a continuation signals. Those who are familiar with my analysis know that I recommend to take a new position only when the triangle is broken out. If you already have a short position, close it in case the price broke up the triangle.

2. US Dollar against Swiss Franc (USD-CHF)

4:21am GMT

It went up but was stopped by the 261.80% level and it is possible that it bounces down or goes up and down several times around this level.

The 4hrs shows a strong sell signal.

The one hour shows a flag which is a continuation signal. I expect the price to go down, retests the Bollinger lower band and then goes up. The market will be slow for several hours again.

3. British Pound against US Dollar (GBP-USD)

In the daily chart the price is still retesting the broken channel.

In the 4hrs, the price is stopped by the 1.9647 support.

The market shows that the Bulls and Bears have the same power again and the market is uncertain.

4. US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD-JPY)

4:41am GMT

Daily chart shows that the price has tired to break up the Bollinger middle band and so the triangle but it failed.

The 4hrs shows a very strong sell signal.

The one hour shows a big head and shoulders. If it breaks down the neckline, it will go much lower.



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4 Comments:
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Comment by Scromie
2008-02-06 12:36:03

I think you’re right - triple a demo account and you know what you’re doing. One good idea might be to save up some money during the time you are learning to do well in forex, and by the time you have tripled the account, you should have enough to start with.

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Comment by Ateeq
2008-02-06 12:41:24

hi vahid

i have one question, sometimes triangle broke not because of the price action but because of the time. meaning when we made a ascending/descending/sym triangle and then after some hours triangle finishes and the price comes out automatically. so what will we do at that point.
i hope you got my point and please give us some idea on this too.
thanks
ateeq

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Comment by Vahid
2008-02-06 13:54:30

Ateeq,

That’s right. Sometimes the price doesn’t break out of a triangle and moves toward the end of the triangle. The last 1/3 part of the triangle is called No Zone. When the price goes to this area, it will not be clear what will happen. In most cases the market will remain range for a longer time. Generally when the price goes to the No Zone area, it means you can count on the triangle and the related rules.

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Comment by Paul
2008-02-06 15:11:31

I hope you will start your gbp/jpy signals again -I found them really useful.
Best regards
Paul

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