Please Help Me to Make a Difference

by Vahid | Forex Market Analysis and Signals, Good To Know | Thursday, February 12th, 2009

Hello :)

Yesterday was one of the best days in my life. It was a long time that I was looking for a good charitable organization that agrees to be sponsored by this website but I had not received any reasonable agreement from any of them. Until yesterday that one of the forexoma.com users, James, from Allentown, PA United States referred me to the website of an organization which manages offering micro-loans to developing countries’ entrepreneurs. When I visited the website I saw that it already has everything I needed them to have to be supported by forexoma.com. When I checked the profile of those who were waiting to receive their loans I was really impressed. I joined right away and created a Lending Team named Vahid Pips. This name was also recommended by James and so I used it without any changes to be more grateful to James.

Thanks James! I am forever in your debt. You gave me one more reason to survive and work. You are the founder of this action in forexoma.com and it will be named under your name for good.

As soon as I joined and created the lending team, James also joined and helped some entrepreneurs. I see that Eugene, one of the other forexoma.com users from Pretoria, Gauteng South Africa, has joined and sponsored one entrepreneur. Thanks Eugene! Our hearts are now much much closer to each other.

I know most of you were eager to join me in a charitable activity. It is the time. Please join and look at the innocent and afflicted faces of those who are waiting for a small help from you. I want you to join just because I want you to feel and enjoy the same feeling that I had when I was helping them. It is not the first time that I participate in a charitable activity but I don’t why this one was so pleasant and joyful to me.

Click Here for more information and/or to join.

From now on, all the money that I make through the Google ads I have on this website will be spent to sponsor the entrepreneurs in Kiva.


Tip of the day:

Are you overconfident?!

Last year in one of my articles I mentioned that having no confidence is better than being overconfident. I still believe so because when you have no confident in doing something you just stay away and don’t do anything. So you will not hurt yourself and the others but when you are overconfident you believe that something you do is absolutely right and you make no mistake. You act and make a mess then.

Overconfidence is one of the problems that new traders will be faced with. After a few months of reading and practicing and demo trading, they succeed to make some good trades either by luck or by following the system rules and signals. Then they think that “That’s it. I am done and I am a good trader now.”. They start trading with the real account but as they feel overconfident, they don’t analyze properly and take the positions before they see a good signal and confirmation. What happens then? Their account will be wiped out with the first a few trades.

I have seen the overconfidence problem in some good and experienced traders too. Last year a very good and professional trader who is a friend of mine took a long position while the EUR/USD was going down badly. I warned him but he didn’t listen to me because he thought it is me who has to learn from him. It went against him badly and when he saw another buy signal which was not a good signal actually, he added to his long position (averaging down) and the market kept on going against him. I still remember how he said “It will go up. I am sure.” But it didn’t!

I always warn myself against overconfidence. Please note that having few good trades or even doubling or tripling a demo account doesn’t mean that you have become a good trader. The reason is that forex market does not have the same situation always. Sometimes it is trending and sometimes it is ranging. Sometimes it is calm and sometimes it is stormy. It is possible that you make several good trades when the market is ranging. It doesn’t mean that you can also trade properly when it is trending. Like a new sailor who has only sailed in a calm ocean and he has not experienced a real storm yet.

So when you see you are doing good with the demo account, don’t rush to trade with the live account. Keep on trading with the demo account at least for a few months. If you see that you are profitable at least five months consecutively, it means you can start trading with the live account but with a very small amount of money because when you start trading with the live account you will experience some new emotions which are hard to control. You have to learn to control those new emotions through live trading. Try to pass this stage with losing a very small amount of money.

Today signals will be posted in the below table at 17:00 EST which is 22:00 GMT. Be on time!

Announcement (11:08 GMT, 12 Feb): Ok! We are done for tonight. No more orders. Click here if you are late.

Note:
1. Read the disclaimer before you use the below buy/sell signals.
2. If you have not received the below signals on time, just compare the current price with the entry price and do not take any position if the target is already triggered or the price is close to it.
3. Please note that some of the below signals can be pending orders. So read all the explanations carefully before you take any position.
4. Cancel all the pending orders that are not triggered from the previous day.

CP What to Do? Entry Price Stop Loss Trailing Stop Take Profit Results
EUR/USD - - - - - -
GBP/USD - - - - - -
USD/CHF - - - - - -
USD/JPY - - - - - -

USD/CAD Sell (22:31 GMT, 12th Feb) 1.2418 1.2563 40 1.2368 +50
(08:41 GMT, 13 Feb)
USD/SGD - - - - - -
USD/NOK Sell (22:48 GMT, 12th Feb) 6.8274 6.9600 400 6.7774 +28
(07:03 GMT, 13 Feb)
closed by trailing stop at 6.8246
USD/SEK Sell (22:59 GMT, 12th Feb) 8.3615 8.5108 400 8.3115 +32
(08:12 GMT, 13 Feb)
closed by trailing stop at 8.3583
USD/DKK - - - - - -

EUR/JPY - - - - - -
EUR/CHF - - - - - -
EUR/GBP - - - - - -
EUR/AUS - - - - - -
EUR/CAD - - - - - -
EUR/NOK - - - - - -

GBP/JPY - - - - - -
GBP/CHF - - - - - -
GBP/AUS - - - - - -
GBP/CAD - - - - - -

CHF/JPY - - - - - -
CHF/SGD - - - - - -

CAD/JPY - - - - - -
CAD/CHF - - - - - -

AUS/USD - - - - - -
AUS/JPY - - - - - -
AUS/CAD - - - - - -
AUS/CHF - - - - - -
AUS/NZD - - - - - -
AUS/SGD - - - - - -

NZD/USD - - - - - -
NZD/JPY - - - - - -

SGD/JPY - - - - - -

Total:

+110



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Further Reading:

 
30 Comments:
post a comment
Comment by Jameen
2009-02-12 09:45:43

hi happy campers< Forex not lookin good this morning. I’ll waint until 5pm today My question is i was told that there is a way for me to make money in forex: 1 is signal providers , now i did open up an FXCM micro account, i was told that signal providers don’t provide signals what they do is:
once i except a signal provider company or etc. then what ever profit they make i get some of that profit, is that true?

I was just that the catch with that is i have to look very closly when chosing a Signal Provider. again is that true? Someone please help out

 
Comment by Jameen
2009-02-12 09:46:41

thats funny can she drive or what LOL

 
Comment by Jameen
2009-02-12 09:47:34

a mercedes benz at that

 
Comment by Cory
2009-02-12 11:18:41

Vahid, thanks so much for your great website and analysis! I was wondering, which forex broker(s) do you use or recommend? I am looking for one which will let me use MetaTrader 4 and that is honest and easy to withdraw from. I also want tight spreads and quick order fills, but mainly just an honest company to deal with. Thanks in advance!

Cory

 
Comment by Fitz Canada
2009-02-12 14:11:45

Hi Vahid,

What benefits of Dukascopy do you like?

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-12 14:16:27

Hi Fitz,

1. It has no dealing desk. The positions you take will be placed directly to the forex market.
2. Their spreads is so tight.
3. It is well-known and trusted by 99% of users and a lot of big hedge fund companies.

The only thing I don’t like about them is their platforms.

Best regards,
Vahid

Comment by sunking
2009-02-12 15:12:40

how do you feel about FX Solutions?

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-12 16:15:22

Hi Sunking,

I have not worked with it but I have heard that it is a good broker. To make sure, just see the reviews on ForexPeaceArmy.com

Best regards,
Vahid

 
 
 
 
Comment by fxyts
2009-02-12 15:06:56

Hi Vahid,

I see some pin bars on the daily TF for Audjpy, Cadjpy,Eurjpy, usdjpy (this last one looks interesting as it closed above the monthly P.P)

Best regards,
fxyts

 
Comment by sunking
2009-02-12 15:15:09

No positions today….

 
Comment by Cory
2009-02-12 15:36:25

Thanks for your advice on brokers. I have one more question. How does your trailing stop work? (Please explain with an example if possible). I don’t understand how your stop-loss could be bigger than the trailing stop.. it seems like the trailing stop would always be hit first. Sorry, I hope this isn’t a stupid question. I programmed my own EA with a trailing Stop and it just goes up whenever the stock reaches a new high (for example, if it is set to 80, then it is always 80 points behind the highest recent high of the stock), so I never lose more than 80 pips (barring a big news event, etc.) Thanks so much for your advice! I really want to understand more of your system of putting in trades.

Cory

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-12 16:20:38

Hi Cory,

The trailing stop is not actually a stop loss. It moves the initial stop loss when your trade goes to profit for the amount of your trailing stop setting. For example when your trailing stop is set to 80 pips, if the trade goes to profit for 80 pips, the trailing stop will move the stop loss to breakeven. Then if the trades moves to the favorite direction, for each pip it moves, the stop loss will be moved one pip further.

Best regards,
Vahid

 
 
Comment by sunking
2009-02-12 15:57:48

I am now a PROUD member of Vahid Pips @ kiva.com!!! What a great Idea.

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-12 16:23:38

Thanks Sunking!

 
 
Comment by Dams
2009-02-12 17:24:09

Hi Vahid,

I’m learning Forex and using your signals on a demo. Pls tell me what chart should I use these signals on (H1, H4…etc)?

Thanking you in advance

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-12 21:16:51

Hi Dams,

I use weekly, daily, 4hrs and 1hr chart to analyze the market.

Best regards,
Vahid

 
 
Comment by Eli
2009-02-12 21:06:25

Hi Vahid,

I have been enjoying learning forex from you and I appreciate your desire to help others.

I know it is overtaxing for you to give an analysis for your trades, but I was wondering if instead you coulc give a brief description of the trades such as “4h Head and Shoulders breakout”. Perhaps ther could be a column before the “results” column where you could put this. In this way, perhaps most of the discussion could be done by us, your “students”, and you would not have to spend so much time answering questions. Perhaps it would save even more time for you?

Anyway, thanks for what you do. It is a lot already and I am thankful that I found your site.

Eli

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-12 21:19:48

Hi Eli,

Thanks for your attentions and your suggestion.

I will think about it.

Best regards,
Vahid

 
 
Comment by xedbox
2009-02-12 21:11:14

Brother Vahid,
Peace Be Upon You

Thank You, God Bless You ,
شكرا وبارك الله في اعمالك

Best regards,
M.Suliman

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-12 21:30:08

Hi Brother,

Thanks a lot for your attentions and support.

شکرا لک ايضا يا اخي. بالتوفيق

Best regards,
Vahid

 
 
Comment by jm
2009-02-13 10:02:11

Dear Vahid,

Regarding trailing stops, have you ever tried tu use them in “steps” instead of “pip by pip”?
Something like: “Once you have 40 pips of profit, move SL to BE, and from there, every 20 pips of additional profit move SL 20 pips ahead, and if you have more than 60 pips of profit move SL 5 pips every 5 pips of aditional profit”
It is just an example.
I am asking this because my trading platform (Ninjatrader) has this capability (don’t know if others have too) and seems interesting.
It seems to make sense that using “steps” instead of “pip by pip” allows certain kind of retracement in the way of the profits, avoiding the fact of beeing stopped the first pip moving against you.
Thank you very much!

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-13 17:04:35

Hi JM,

MetaTrader doesn’t support that but it is a good idea. Of course when you set the trailing stop to 40, the stop loss will keep the distance for 40 pips from the price until the price hits the target. So it will be triggered only when the market goes against your trade seriously.

Best regards,
Vahid

 
 
Comment by JimS
2009-02-13 10:20:49

I use NT and find that adjusting the step frequency helps give the trail a little buffer from the quick pops.

 
Comment by jm
2009-02-14 10:00:37

Hi Vahid!
New question,
;-)
Regarding, Dark Cloud Cover ande Piercing Line, it’s clear they are reversal signs, ant that you must wait for the third candle to overpass the high (or bottom) of the previous candle, but, would you enter (or exit) as soon as this level is hit or (as you always recomend for other patterns) you must also wait for the complete formation of that confirmation bar?
Thanks a lot for your help!

jm

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-15 10:33:16

Hi JM,

It is always good to wait for the confirmation to be fully formed. But when you become more experienced, you can easily distinguish that a signal is strong enough to let you enter even before confirmation.

Best regards,
Vahid

 
 
Comment by azmi
2009-02-14 10:50:37

Hello Vahid!
This is the first time I write to you so the thing I must do is to thank U on everything you’ve done for all ‘concerned’ traders like me. I’m so thankful to God & U, it just happened that I came across your website few months ago (2008) when I was looking for good reading materials from internet to upgrade my forex knowledge. Frankly your materials/ writings, etc on forex is a class above others, and again I’m grateful to know a good person like U in this bussines.

Back to the issue of overconfidence, I think I understand better than few other traders (those who have no experience).. Just to share my experience, I’m still very very raw in this field (less than 1 year) but after few bad trades (actual more than few) I discovered few tips/ theories for my own trade. So next few days I started to trade using those theories and YES IT WORKED! After sometimes I started to feel overconfidence with my trade. Believe it or not I had experience in I day trade (normally I make betw. 10-20 trades per day) I achieved 100% profits (although not much for each trade) for all those trades! BUT God wanted me to learn again & again. The following week the story was different, my overall daily result was LOSS for the whole week!, meaning every day that week at the end of the day my trade suferred loss! It taught me a lot. What? I MUST learn again and again, looking for other basics/ angles, systems, etc.
Sorry if the story bored U, but just to tell U & others that what U wrote happened to me & most important thing (to me) don’t be overconfidence, always have fears in each trade I took & always look for other’s advices/ systems/ theories to upgrade myself.

Best regards, azmi

Comment by Vahid
2009-02-15 10:37:25

Hi Azmi,

Thanks for your attentions.

Yes; overconfidence is something that everybody, even experienced traders have to be carefully about it. I wish you more success both in life and business.

Best regards,
Vahid

 
 
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