A Slow Day for GBP-JPY

by Vahid | Forex Market Analysis and Signals | Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

2:39pm GMT

The daily chart doesn’t shows any significant improvement since yesterday except it seems the Bollinger middle band is broken and so there is more probability that the price goes up. As you may remember, yesterday I told you that the daily shows indecision. It seems the Bulls are getting stronger. As you know Bulls act much more slower than Bears and so when we take a long position we have to have more patience.

Also please note that I check big time frames like daily just to see what is going on in the daily time frame. In the intraday trading we do not act according to daily. We just need to know what direction the daily shows. This is good because when we take a position using smaller time frames, we will know that if it is against the daily or not. When it is against the daily, we have to be careful because it is always possible that the price moves against us.

Also the today candlestick shows that the price has tried to break the 23.60% level once but failed again. As you see it also tried on 25th but failed. As it has been able to break the Bollinger middle band, it is highly possible that it breaks the 23.60% level and go up. This is a very sensitive point. We have to have an eye on it. If it can break the 23.60% level, it means Bulls have succeeded to take the control.

3:04pm GMT

The 4hrs shows that the price has succeeded to breaks the triangle we had yesterday but now is going down to retest it.

3:07pm GMT

The one hour shows a good sell signal but the price is stopped by the Bollinger middle band and the broken triangle. It is retesting the triangle.

3:13pm GMT

The 15min shows the same thing.

3:16pm GMT

5min shows good buy signal. If it goes higher than the horizontal blue line (212.31) , it will go higher.

3:34pm GMT

So it is going up. Keep the long position as long as it has not violated the blue line. The 212.73 resistance is on the way.

5:01pm GMT

The retesting of the broken triangle was completely unsuccessful and so the price is going up.

6:47pm GMT

Still going up strongly but it is testing the 23.60% level once again. Have an eye on it. If it breaks up, keep your long position. If not go short or close your long position if you are already long.

8:53pm GMT

Still going up but very slowly. I expect it keeps on going up. There is a resistance at 213.43 that you have to be careful about it if you have a long position.

Further Reading:

2 Comments:
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Comment by Rian

2008-01-29 17:46:15

If you dont mind try to plot Heiken Ashi indicator into your chart and let me know your analisys. Thanks.

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Comment by Vahid

2008-01-30 13:18:17

Rian,

Sure! The chart analysis is the same as the candlestick chart. Just the signals that each individual candle shows is different. Heikin Ashi is delayed and most of the candlestick shapes and patterns don’t make sense about it. The are only two kinds of Heikin Ashi that you have to pay attention to:

Big body Heikin Ashi candles with no upper or lower shadow. It is a continuation signal.

And Doji form Heikin Ashi candle with a small body and long upper and lower shadows. This is a reversal signal.

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