This pair has been trending down for some time but now shows signs that a change may be in progress. A descending wedge can be a sign of reversal though of course the breakout has yet to happen.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_revers

We can see from the Daily chart that it was right up at the resistance line and has fallen back a little. The RSI is a little overbought but not drastically so.
The H4 chart looks like a consolidation, as does the H1.

If this pair does break out upwards the potential upside is quite large, with the start of the wedge being about 800 pips above the current level. Bear in mind though that this was 11 months ago so this isn't exactly a quick hit
Depending on the timing and size of a breakout I'd be looking for a stoploss at about 92.00.

All the best

Michael

I must admit Michael, that I did not have the very long term resistance line on my Daily chart. I note from your chart that you have fallen victim to the mt4 platform sneakily moving your line when you weren't looking



This has peed me off on many occasions! There has just been an upgrade to the platform and I had hoped that maybe they had fixed this - but no. I find it very annoying to have to keep repositioning my trendlines
I assume that this is the trendline as it should be?



I have to admit that when I drew this line on my chart and zoomed in, I was dumbfounded!



I just couldn't believe such precise reaction to a line that originated a year ago. Incredible!

I have to admit that when there are such dramatic moves such as we have seen with this pair recently, I tend to ignore it until it settles down with some new trendlines that I can have faith in. You are able to look at the bigger picture and I congratulate you for that.

I often feel disappointed that there are not more regular contributors to this Forum, but while we have thought provoking posters like you and Bill Chillydog, Vincent and now Ian (Not forgetting Vahid, of course), it makes THIS forum the place to be


Keep up the good work


Keith

Actually Keith I can't blame the platform for that one. I plotted the line on the weekly and left it visible on the daily too instead of re-plotting it. Thanks for pointing it out.

We have a good core of contributors here - people who are willing to share and learn. That will attract more like minded souls as time passes. I like the fact that I have time to read everything posted here.

All the best

Michael

I am now long USD JPY based on the breakout on the H4 chart.
Open: 92.96
Stop: 91.89
Target open at the moment.

I'll be updating the progress of that trade in my diary thread...
http://www.forexoma.com/forums/michaels-diary-265.html?view-post=3871#p3871

All the best

Michael

I wasn't sure where to post this

What break-out are you referring to on the H4 Michael? There was a break of a small resistance line a few hours before you took your trade. It hasn't made a higher closing high.

Personally, I'm neutral with this pair at the moment. As yet, there is no actual divergence formed with the MACD on H4, but it does look a possibility. The tightening bollinger bands suggest that the market may range for a while.
But then again, your stop is below the most likely range and any range breakout is most likely to be a continuation of the upward move. Look at the last few times the bollinger bands tightened up.
There has been a higher significant low that was unable to reach the bollinger lower band. I guess that you have quite a few boxes ticked here.



Good luck with your trade


Keith

From my understanding Japan's fiscal year ends this month(tomorrow). So who knows what the big boys will do to manipulate the price. I am scared of all JPY pairs until next week.

I know what you mean about not being sure where to post. I thought that if I kept analysis and trades separate it would help me focus on trading but even I'm confused about where to post!!

The break of the small resistance was the trigger for the trade (Blue up arrow). I'm now confused because it seems that I took the trade 25 minutes before that candle closed. Unless I'm adjusting the chart times wrong, looking at the time of the trade and the times the candles start I must have taken it early.

That said, the break of what I see as a consolidation was the main trigger. The kick down 3 candles before is something I have noticed several times when waiting for a break such as this. It may be stop hunting - it has certainly taken mine out a few times There seems to be a sharp move against the expected trade, then a strong move in the opposite direction.
The shape of the RSI and MACD also seem to be typical of consolidations and though the daily MACD is overbought its not drastically so.

All the best

Michael

I'm also now confused Michael

The candle that broke resistance as you have indicated, was the 30 March 12:00 H4 candle and this closed at 92.60. 25 minutes before the candle closed, the price was 92.58.
You entered the trade at 92.96 which was the price about 35 minutes after the candle close.
Do you trade using the FXPro charts?
Daylight saving time came into effect at the weekend, has this thrown you out by an hour this week. I know that it has with me I have 3 key times that I like to check up on the H4 charts everyday if possible and many times I have forgotten.
Mind you, that shouldn't affect you in Scotland as your local time changes at the same time as FXPro. My local time is always GMT + 7, so now British summertime +6

Anyway, whatever has happened, it is a shame that you didn't open the trade at the close of the H4 candle as you would have been 30 pips better off.
The bollinger bands are starting to widen again, so lets hope that this is a good sign for your trade


Good luck


Keith

What a dumpling I am. The trade was opened at 92.599 at around 13:35 BST

I need to read my posts before hitting the submit button. Off to sleep now (01:31 BST) I think!!

All the best

Michael

Hi Michael, I see that there is now definite divergence formed on the H4 chart.
Have you moved your stop to break-even or staying in for the ride?
The last complete candle was a spinning top, so indecision.



I hope that the bulls can reapply the pressure

Good luck

Keith

Yes Keith my stop is at breakeven.
I've got the same support line as you have drawn so I'll see if it can stay above that for a while. It looks like a reasonable breakout on the daily and I'm still hoping this will mature into a long runner. It may well drop back down to test the resistance but I'll just wait and see.

All the best

Michael

You often see good runs with the Yen pairs so good luck

Keith

I'm just about to move the stop to 92.80 which is just below Wednesdays spike down. It only secures 20 pips but it seems to be the right place. The price is stuck at just below 94.00 just now and I have a suspicion that if it doesn't break up soon then profit taking may lead to a sharp drop at some point.
I'm still managing this as an H4 trade so I expect to close it if the price closes below the support line on Keiths earlier post.

All the best

Michael