I am glad to see you being selective. I think we may have some short setups on most of the JPY pairs in a few hours maybe. Just have to watch but I think this is a good possibility.

Hi Bill,

I took the AUS/USD reversal yesterday which looks like it was the same time frame as your Kiwi. Today I had a long continuation on GBP/USD and when it hit target I switched to GPY/JPY (also a long continuation) which also hit. All M30.
I don't have the 'balls of steel' that you have so I always get out at 1:1!!
Regards,
Paul

Yes AUS/USD was same trade as NZD/USD. I don't ride my whole position to 3:1. I split my position in half and usually have 2 positions on every trade. I always take profit on 1 position at 1:1 and then manage my trade from there.

I've taken this one as well (short NZDUSD 30mins then looked at 4hrs NZDUSD and decided to give it a go) and milked out 1:3 profit on the second half of the position,the same way Bill did.
However silly me I took short GBPUSD 14/06 with pin bar formed outside BB and snipers - without stoch divergence/convergence so I was rightly punished Hands slapped
Still touch positive for the week and that counts the most.
On the completetly different subject:
This Andrew's pitchfork 5mins setup video was probably posted after the breakout has happened. Still it would I would be probably too scared to take it.
Working on my trade journal and still can't understand why I haven't follow all my trades (taken and not taken, ideal and less ideal etc) long time ago. Also exercising this 5mins chart thing. Gosh I would have to go part time in my current job to follow all this up.

Paul

What candle did you enter on your GBP/USD trade. Can you also tell me why you decided to enter this trade. Looking back I can't see a reason why I would of entered a long trade on this pair today on the 30 MIN chart. Thanks.

Bill

Shortly after close of FXPRO 16.00. 1st candle body to touch/break sniper and upper BB after a long consolidation and supported by a resistance b/o of the 15.30 candle. Placed S/L a few pips below SMA 50 and needed 43 pips for T1. Just barely made it.
Paul

Yes I see your logic and your logic is correct. I take the same setup sometimes but for some reason I did not recognize this one probably because the BB's widened too much before the candle hit the BB. Good trade.

Yes Bill, I just hope that I don't become too selective.
I am seeing some set-ups that I dismiss go on to be good winners. Your trade with NZD-USD M30 is such an example.
I assume that was at the close of the 18:30 FXPro candle (M30) 14th June? I have to admit that I was in bed when that set-up occurred, but I doubt that I would have taken it because of the strong bullish run.
I did see the earlier set up that formed at the close of the 09:30 FXPro candle and decided against it for the same reason. This one wouldn't have quite hit target.

I may miss out on some winners, but I'm hoping that the more experience that I have with this strategy, the better I will get at distinguishing the good set-ups.

At the moment I am observing the USD-JPY M30 FXPro candle. Obviously too early yet, but a failure to make a new low with the stoch going deep into oversold and reaction around the BMB or BLB. A bullish candle will indicate a buy to me.
Anything can happen, but if this did develop, it would tick enough boxes for me to open a long position.

Yes that is the correct candle. The longer bullish run was a reason to take it. There had already been a couple of false sell signals on the way up. Then a pretty strong break of Sniper MA and the BB followed by an engulfing candle and supported with stochastic divergence. Pretty much a perfect trade setup.

Keith,
On reversals, I usually like to see RSI 3 above 92 (short trade) or below 8 (long trade) on the first candle that forms part of the the signal (as well as Bill's Stochastic methodology).
Paul

On USD-JPY
I would consider this a continuation as the very recent move was up. As I've said before, I find it a bit difficult to decide which to give more weight to, the recent trend or an overall trend.
In this case the price had moved and stayed above the BMB. Reacted to the BUB. Broke below BMB and snipers band, followed by a bullish candle that has taken it above the BMB. Decent divergence with stochastics
I have taken the trade at reduced risk because the small candle range means that the spread is quite large compared to it.
The stochastic is working so well that I really am reluctant to start complicating things by using other oscillators. This is one of the problems that I have had in the past. Keep adding new boxes to be ticked to make up the perfect trade and then it works out that I never find a trade

Hope that things are working well for you

Keith

RSI helps to filter out the false signals mentioned in the Kiwi example. The only continuation signals I consider is after a consolidation following a obvious trend.
Could be just semantics but all the rest I see as reversals, no matter how small they may turn out to be and the standard reversal rules must apply. Since there are many Sniper signals during the month and I trade full time I have the luxury of being ultra-selective. I take your point about crowding your charts though.
Re USD/JPY - for me the candles are too small to be considered and I don't see a b/o of both sets of bands. The BMB means nothing to me using this system. That's the subjective part of trading I guess. I'm interested in what others may think.
Paul

I saw no trade on the USD/JPY trade either. I tend to agree with all you said. I like your comments about RSI 3 and have been looking at it. So for you to trade the RSI and Stochastic must meet the rules for you to enter a trade or either one? Sometimes the BBM can work in this system but it must be with an obvious trend and our same rules will still apply.

My 'perfect' setup includes both. Stoch is better at showing C/D and the RSI rule confirms the entry for me - given that all the other basic rules are in place. I prefer strong b/o's on BOTH upper or lower bands so that is why I don't consider BMB so much. Just a personal preference.
I also trade S/R b/o's on H4 and higher and use RSI 3 on the lower time frames for the entry.

Yes, that was my next question. Looks to me RSI 3 works fine on 15 MIN, 30 MIN, and 1 HR charts.

What's happened here is that Vahid has introduced snipers, but since then has added little in the way of direction. These means that we are all developing with it in different ways. In a ranging market, I will look for breaks of the Bollinger upper and lower bands. When the market has a bias, I will look for signals around the Bollinger middle band as well.

Keith,

I suggest you go watch the Sniper videos again. I found the information in them very clear and complete. He gives the rules for a setup. The only thing I have done differently than what he intoduced to us is add the stochastic indicator to help me filter for higher percentage setups. My rules for taking a trade is what is presented in the videos not my own interpretation.

Bill

Hi Bill,
As you suggested, I have watched the videos again and to be honest with you, I do not find the information clear and complete. In fact I find a lot in them contradictory.
I attach a chart of a short trade set-up according to the rules in the videos. There is absolutely no way that I would consider this to be a valid short trade set-up. So what am I doing wrong?



Similarly with a long trade set-up. I just don't get it! It makes absolutely no sense that this could be considered a valid trade set-up.



Do either of these make sense to you? They don't to me, which suggests that I have not been able to totally understand the rules with snipers.



Keith - even more confused than normal.

The first chart is a short signal because the green candle has a strong breakout. More than half of it is outside the BB and the Sniper MA then the second candle is a sell signal just because of the shape of the candle and it is also outside the bands. With this being said I would not have taken this trade because it has just started up the BB and this is the first breakout however if something like this happened further along in a uptrend and was supported by stochastic divergence I would take it.

The second chart I agree with you. I see no buy signal.

Keith if you are not comfortable trading this system why force yourself? Seems you were doing alright before. Just because I find this system much to my liking does not mean you will. I also like liver and onions and most people can't stand it.

Bill

Hi again Bill,


I'm actually very comfortable with the snipers system. I'm not forcing myself at all. With a few more months experience, I am confident that it will be a major part of my trading.
It's just that I don't think that the videos give enough guidance and that is why I believe that we are all moving in slightly different directions with it. I'm doing better than break-even, which is all that anyone can hope for when not been using a system for too long.

With the short trade on the first chart that I posted, I would not consider it valid as the bearish candle was not strong enough. I would not consider it valid with or without stoch divergence or anywhere along the trend. I would want to see the bearish candle engulf at least 50% of the previous candle.

With the second chart, I don't like that it goes against the strong trend and if I was considering this, I would wait for confirmation with the next candle.
I find it difficult to believe that anyone would see a trade here.

By the way, I love liver and onions