The USD-JPY trade is progressing nicely and I have now moved the Stop to Break-even

The target is hit with the USD-JPY Trade
I was tempted to let it run, but it is right on resistance now and after a good run, will watch it for maybe a re-entry if it does go higher and retrace to test this resistance

Good job keith. Keep up the good work. How are you doing as far as you psychology. I seem to be getting better at reading the charts and i seem to make the correct decision based on what my charts say, but my only issue is moving my SL up too close to price because im afraid to give what ive made back to the market. I figure i work hard to plan the trade so why let it go bad. I need to work on this thinking though.

Hi all,

I added something about USD-JPY to the report. Please take a look.

Yes, definitely have to be careful, especially as the overall trend on the Daily is firmly downwards. Thanks Vahid

USD-CHF

You may remember that I mentioned this pair a few posts back on 29th November. At that time the convergence with the MACD on the Daily chart was suggesting a possible reversal into bullish territory. Some good signs, but as the Friday 27th's candle had such a long upper wick and small body, it was shouting "Proceed with caution if you are considering a long position."
Since then, the last 3 daily candles have failed to make new lows and there is a slight divergence with the MACD. This does tend to strengthen the possibility of a long trade.




H4 time-frame

At the time of my previous post I was anticipating the price to rise and test resistance again after failing to break the bollinger MA. Couldn't have been more wrong - could I
Instead it did go down and seemed to form a new support. Before this support had been tested enough to validate it for sure, it was broken by a very long candle. The price has failed to test the broken support as resistance, it's a little on the steep side and is now invalidated. I will remove it from my chart after this post.
The candles have moved on to form a new and better looking support, but I wouldn't like to see a break of this support just yet. Should it close below support, I would rather wait for a break of the recent low (0.9969) before opening a short position.
The last few candles have shown very good reaction to the bollinger MA as resistance, so a break above the bollinger MA could be a signal to go long. Again, though, I'd really want to see a break of the recent high (1.0026) as well, but the problem here is that there may not be enough room for a decent target before the price hits resistance.



Should I get any good indications on the H4 chart, I will look to see if there is a good trade set-up with the H1 chart.

Good call Keith

Your patience in waiting for the correct entry paid off and your target setting was spot on!
The EMA RSI indicator flagged this pair up on the H1 chart as shown in the screen shot. More about that in the other thread...


Michael

Thanks Michael,
The target was basically set at resistance. The stop was set at where the projected support and broken resistance met.
Interesting that the indicator that you are working on would have indicated a trade much earlier.

EUR-CAD

There seem to be a good solid line of resistance on the daily chart. The price has shown very good reaction to it and the EUR-CAD is having a lot of difficulty in breaking up, despite many attempts.
The support line looks pretty good, but we are nearing the point of a triangle and the bollinger MA is moving below the support line. The price may go down and will need to break both the support and bollinger MA before I would consider a short position on the daily chart. Most likely a move down would be a signal to redraw the support line.



On the H4 chart we've had a series of mostly bullish candles that have come to a dead stop when they hit the broken support. The last few candles have been a period of consolidation, maybe the bulls have run out of steam after the recent bullish pressure?
The recent candles show that the EUR-CAD has lost its momentum and there is no real indication of where it will go from here. Have the bulls just been catching their breath before the big push to break resistance?
The price, at the moment, is about 30 pips below resistance, 80 pips above the bollinger MA and 120 pips above support.
Should the price start to move down, there may be a reasonable shorting opportunity because of a feasible R;R ratio.
Unfortunately the MACD and %R are little help in making any suggestions on both the Daily and H4 charts.



On the hourly chart there has again been a period of consolidation. The price has shown good reaction to the support and we will have to see if this support holds. The support line is above the bollinger MA, so I would want to see an H1 candle close below the MA before considering a short position.
The upper and lower bollinger bands are moving closer together and this suggests that the market will be making a decision to go up or down soon.
I am considering the short position with the H1 because of the good R;R ratio indicated on the H4 chart.
The spread is not helpful with this pair. With FXPro it is 15 pips at this point in time. It's 8 pips with my broker, so not so bad, but spreads like these make trading H1 charts difficult on some pairs!

Great Stuff. Check out the spreads @ FOREX.com

Well the 9AM H1 candle still has about 10 minutes before it closes.
My internet is iffy so not sure that I will be able to update later.
The current candle broke the bollinger MA, but has retraced to join it again. If this candle closes with a tail longer than its body, then I won't be taking the trade just yet!

Thanks for the suggestion Sunking The spread with FXPro is 6 now, much better than the 15 they were offering earlier!

Sorry-
Please ignore my previous post.
I'm partially colour blind and sometimes I make mistakes. I thought that I was looking at a red candle! My internet to FXPro had frozen at the time and so there were no price ticks
I must change the colours to something to be more obvious to me

I've held off on this trade so far.
It does look like resistance on the Daily and the broken support on the H4 are proving very strong. The last complete H4 candle couldn't push through the broken support, so a good reaction.
The %R H4 is now indicating that it is coming out of overbought and the signal line could well move above the MACD to indicate a sell. Not strong enough signals for a short on H4 but I was looking at H1 for this trade anyway.



On the Hourly chart, it did break support, and after another 2 candles broke the bollinger MA, the problem was that the same candle that broke the MA had a higher high and a higher low than the previous candle. Not an ideal situation to go short.
The next candle was a spinning top and the high flirted with the bollinger MA, usually a spinning top would be a sign of indecisiveness, but it did strengthen the validity of the MA as resistance.
The current candle with 10 minutes left before close is a spinning top doji at the moment. Another sign of indecision, but again the bollinger MA held out.
If the current candle on the H1 closes lower than its open, I will open a short position. This is not a perfect trade, but the possible gains outweigh the possible losses. The R:R ratio is to good to wait for a better signal.
Should I open the short position, I will set my stop at just above the recent high, so stop will be 1.5940, target will be open for now, as I will have to give that some more thought.

It's a goer with short EUR-CAD

Entry 1.5889
Stoploss 1.5940

Risk 1%

I have set the target at 1.5825 for the moment, I may change this as the trade progresses.

I didn't have time to re-assess my position. There was such a sudden move and my target was triggered. So profit taken at 1.5825

Well now is Friday and getting on so I don't think that I will be looking at any new trades now. Finished for the weekend. Time to crack a few beers and family time.
Have a good weekend everybody

Well that was a freaky Friday, lots of support/resistances broken with long candles. I think that for most pairs it's a waiting game now. There may be some opportunities presenting themselves in the lower time-frames, but in H4 and above I will be mostly waiting for new s/r lines to form.

USD-CAD
This pair have been trading in a tightening range for the last 2 months.
Looking at the daily chart, the resistance line looks to be well established and validated. The support and resistance are forming a triangle, but the support is yet to be validated and a break below this line would not have far to go before hitting another support zone formed by the recent triple bottom.
The last 3 candles have been bullish, but the bears really tried hard to push the price down on Friday (look at the long lower wick), before the bulls regained the upper hand.
The relatively flat MACD and the %R in mid range, as well as the candle action tells us that the market has no real sense of direction or momentum.
We need a break of resistance or the triple bottom to give us a real clue as to where this market wants to go.
A break-out from a period of consolidation like this can lead to a big move, so I am going to keep a close eye on this pair.



The H4 cart doesn't tell us a lot! But there are more levels of support than resistance.
Ideally I'd like to see the price go down and validate the support line before breaking the recent high to indicate a long position.
Should the opportunity present itself, I will, of course have to check and confirm that it is a viable trade with the daily chart.

For some reason, I am unable to attach the H4 chart to this post. I will try with a fresh posting

Hi Keith,

Yes I saw this one formed a buy signal on 4hrs chart, but it is below the resistance on the daily.

Try again..... I had to resize the image.