Just the opposite Keith. Because you have started posting this I have started writing my own analysis down - only on a Word document at the moment until I get some confidence, then I might start posting it here.

I'm finding the EMA_RSI project very helpful actually in that it is showing me the power of developing and scripting rules. Look at how many 'hits' it has which end up in significant moves. Add some other filtering and support and resistance and there is the basis of a system I can follow. The advantage of scripting rules for someone like me is that it might help to control the impulsive side I have.

All the best

Michael

USD-CHF

Well this is one pair that does seem to be behaving itself within reason.
The daily chart is still showing reaction to the resistance line that originated back in April.
There is continuing convergence with the MACD and %R shows it coming out of oversold. Looking good so far, but check out the long upper wick of the last daily candle - doesn't really give you confidence to go long , does it? Especially as it would involve going against a long and strong downtrend.



So what does the 4 hour chart have to say?
Well, actually not so much. It does show a real battle between the bulls and bears. Ideally, I like to see it fail to break the bollinger middle band and go up to test resistance again. Hopefully a strong enough signal may develop to indicate a decent trade set up. It may take a day or 2, but at least I'm hopeful with this pair.




As yet I've been unable to spot any possibility of a trade with any of the other pairs, so this may be a very slow week.

I hope that Vahid, with his experience will be able to point me in some direction when he completes his weekly report, because I'm not able to see any other possible set-ups. Of course, it he does indicate some trades, I won't be posting them here!

I will just have to wait and see how the market moves and with luck, it will enable me to draw some new support and resistance lines. I may have to look to the lower time-frames this week to spot a possible trade

Hope everybody else is having more success than I am at interpreting the market

Hi Keith,

How about trading the gap down, which should be closed maybe later today, the gap on the EURUSD looks a few pips larger though - it may have started already I see, oh well.

Regards,
aquiagora

That was a big opening gap on some of the pairs today!
Will have to see what develops aquiagora

GBP-USD

The H4 candle close is 40 minutes away and the price is just testing the broken support as resistance. It is also nudging the bollinger middle band.
After such a good bullish run over the last few candles, I'm hoping that this resistance will hold up as I'm not inclined to go long on a break at the moment. This is because my stop would be larger than my target, pips wise.
Maybe the next few candles will present an opportunity

Sell GBP-CAD 1.7438

H4 candle just closed and broke support. This is a 2% risk

Stoploss 1.7600
Target 1.7286

The price has immediately moved against me!

I have to admit that the long lower wick on the recently closed H4 candle does concern me, but it is below resistance and the bollinger middle bans on the daily chart and stockmarket movement does suggest bearish pressure on the pound.
The current market conditions say it is not a time to trade with tight stoplosses. I expect this trade to be open for a day or 2

Hope you didn't panic to close your position. It went down nicely.

Nice analysis, Nice Trade. Great work.

I didn't panic Vahid, in fact I walked away from the computer not so long after opening the trade and have returned now 8 hours later.
You can see that I don't have your ability to set the target. The offer price went down to 1.7294, 8 pips from my target! Then it has retraced by 50 pips.
Having been so close to my target, and not wanting a winner to turn around, I have moved my stoploss to 1.7388, so locking in a small profit.

Sorry about the disjointed posts when I opened the trade. My internet was not good at the time and I wanted to post my entry details as soon as possible. As it happened, the trade moved against me initially, but if it had moved 50 pips in my favour before I posted, I think that some people would have had doubts.

Thank you Sunking,

I actually had a few doubts about this trade. I didn't like the fact that the candle that broke support had a lower shadow the same size as its body. But weighing everything up, I decided that the trade was a goer, but limited to risking 2% of my bank, not the 3% maximum.

It has been very difficult lately to find good and reliable points to draw support and resistance lines.

USD-JPY

On the H4 chart I can see what appears to be a nice support line forming, but of course, nothing is straightforward
The candles are getting very close to the point of the triangle formed by the support and resistance. The current candle still has more than an hour before it closes, but the previous candle's high/low breached both support and resistance. This tells me that one or both of these lines are invalid.
A candle closing above resistance or below support will not be a signal for a trade, but rather a signal to adjust the S/R lines.
However, the support line looks more reliable than the resistance to me and so a break below support will prompt me to look at the H1 chart for a possible short trade set-up.



The Daily chart suggests that the bears are still in control. Friday's candle indicated uncertainty and a possible reversal. The opening gap of about plus 40 pips certainly seemed to strengthen the possibility. (Remember, 40 pips with this pair is equivalent to about 80 with GBP-USD). But as the day has progressed, the gap has been filled and today's candle could well finish lower than Friday's close.
There are still signs of uncertainty, but for the moment, I wouldn't want to go long with this pair.
I'm hopeful that this pair will soon present a good trade opportunity.

My adjusted stoploss on the GBP-CAD trade came close to being triggered..
One of the problems with this pair is the spread. With FXPro it is now 15 pips. The spread at my broker is 10 at the moment, but I believe that will widen later.
I don't understand why there is the need for these wide spreads.
With FXPro, the Spread with GBP-USD is 3 pips as is the spread with USD-CAD. You could open 2 trades- Sell GBP-USD and sell USD-CAD for an aggregated spread of about 7.5 pips, so how can FXPro or any broker justify a 15 pip spread?

Target hit with GBP-CAD trade

Now, this is a trade that I am not easily able to explain. It's a cocktail based mainly on stockmarket movements. I cannot post any charts, but let's say it's based on bullishness with no underlying fundamental support. Only a 1% risk trade.

Sell GBP-USD

Entry 1.6563
Stoploss 1.6740
Target 1.6270

Nice setup Keith. That 16:00 candle tested the nerves, but you stuck to your analysis. Good job!

Vincent

Hi Keith,

By way of a coincidence I sold GBPUSD this morning at 1.6575 - the idea being that the chances were it would not go higher than the early morning high.
I now have a sell limit order to add to the trade at 1.6650 at the top of the channel on the H4 chart.
It has struggled up to 1.6645 and may hit 1.6650. I placed a very tight S/L in case it shoots through and up.
Your S/L is certainly a lot wider.
Let's see how it plays itself out.
Kel

Hello aquiagora,

My stop is wide as I expect the trade to last a few days.
It's not doing so well for us at the moment, but early days yet.

The influence that the stockmarket has on USD strength is evident with the swings that we have seen lately.
The S&P stockmarket index seems to have plateaued and has been ranging for 3 weeks now. This is after an extended period of divergence with the MACD. If the stockmarkets continue to range, we will see more of the wild up and down movements with the $.
Should the stockmarkets actually start to fall, expect the GBP-USD to fall of a cliff!

Hello all,
I can see a possible trade with USD-JPY
On the Daily chart is a long way below resistance. The last 2 daily candles have been bullish, Fridays candle had a very long lower wick and the %R shows that it is moving out of oversold position - good bullish signs



The H4 chart broke resistance that I wasn't sure about, but has shown very nice reaction on the retrace so a good sign to go long. It's a goer 2% risk
Entry 87.18
Stoploss 86.82
Target 87.84