I had the chart on M15 for the so I missed the entry for this demo trade. If I had entered, it would be losing, so I have entered late at a better price.

EUR-JPY demo
Short entry 116.305
Stop 116.53
Target 116.06

There really doesn't look to be many set-ups forming at the moment.

The USD-CHF has been in quite a strong uptrend. Both the Weekly and Daily RSI indicate that this pair is in overbought territory, so there is a possible correction looming.

The H4 chart shows MACD divergence with the last significant highs, although we cannot be sure that the MACD is at a high at the moment.
The price broke well above the BUB and the last complete candle was more or less a spinning top doji formed totally above the BUB. I'm not sure how much faith you can have in this candle as it is the first H4 of the week, but it does indicate uncertainty at the top of a bullish run.
RSI has also reached overbought on the H4 and has also formed a reasonable RSI support line.
If this current candle closes as a bearish engulfing and RSI moves out of overbought and breaks the support it may be a good indication to go short.
This wouldn't be a perfect trade set-up, but I will see what this current or the next few candles have to say before making a decision.

The Daily and H4 charts with USD-JPY don't really indicate a strong trend to me at the moment.

On the H1 the recent momentum has been mainly bearish but the last 2 lows have formed convergence with the MACD. There looks to be a nice resistance trendline that runs almost in line with the BMB.
The current candle, only 30 minutes old is trying to break above this resistance and if it is still above it at the candle close I will open a long position.

USD-JPY
H1 Chart

The candle closed and although bullish nearly all the way through, the bears exerted pressure and so it couldn't close above the resistance.
I will see what happens with the next candle or 2

There has been no sign of a reversal signal as yet. In fact this pair has continued to climb. It is still possible that the MACD divergence will still hold so I am still prepared to take a short position with a good bearish candle.
This is probably a situation where I should wait for a second reversal signal, so I wouldn't bet the farm on it

The bearish candle didn't quite engulf the previous 2, I wasn't at the computer and I doubt that I would have take the short as it looked like the bulls were fighting to take back control towards the candle close. The MACD divergence does seem to be working though.
It would be nice to see a new support line form without a new MACD high. Keeping an eye on this pair for now.
I do wonder if this would have been a valid reversal signal using the snipers strategy?

The following H1 candle closed above the resistance, but it was a very long candle, so I didn't take the long position. I missed the testing of the broken resistance as support, so no trade here either.
Still, its good to see the MACD convergence working out

The H4 chart with GBP-JPY now shows extended convergence with the MACD (lows)
There looks to be a reasonable resistance line formed on the price chart and this is being tested by the current candle.
RSI 50 has worked quite well as resistance and there is an extended RSI resistance line.

A break above the Resistance as well as the RSI resistance and RSI 50 will indicate a long trade set-up.
The current candle closes in about 30 minutes. I don't like that it appears to be forming a spinning top, an indecision candle. I would prefer it to go down a bit before breaking resistance with some momentum. I don't like it when it blunders sideways through resistance.

Following on from the previous post.

The price did go down and formed a new lower low. Unfortunately the MACD also formed a lower low and so the convergence is no longer in place.
The final candle of the week was stopped by the resistance line. Should there be a break above this resistance next week, I will be reluctant to open a long position as it would be against the obvious down-trend and there is nothing else to support it in the higher time-frames.



The Hourly chart looks like it could be moving into a period of consolidation.
There is a longer term resistance trendline and a more recent support line formed. There is also a small double top?
I wouldn't take a long position on a break of resistance as once again, it would be against the main trend and there is no convergence/divergence to suggest that this would be a good move.
There have been quite large opening gaps these last few weeks, so I will watch with interest. If the market opens below the support, I will look for a testing of the broken support to indicate a continuation of the strong down-trend

The GBP-JPY did eventually break support on the H1 chart. Unfortunately, the FXPro server was not updating the charts at the time and so I don't know what the true candle close was.
The price went up and paid little attention to the broken support, so I never entered a trade. Shame, as it did make a substantial move down.

I've just opened a long position with USD-CAD.
This is based on the Snipers strategy and is a continuation signal of the strong upward movement on the H4 chart.
Entry at close of 26 May 00:00 H4 candle
Long entry 1.0717
Stop 1.0640
Target1 1.0794

1% risk

The USD-CAD trade has moved into profit, but showing a loss at the moment.
I see a short trade set-up with AUD-USD with Snipers on M30, but I have this trade open with USD-CAD, so both trades would rely on bullishness with USD.
As I have only risked 1% on the USD-CAD trade, I will take the position with AUD-USD, 1% risk.

Short entry AUD-USD 0.8284
Stop 0.8316
Target 0.8252

The stops with USD-CAD and AUD-USD have been hit.
To be honest, I've had enough. I've been studying Forex for over a year, but I am unable to make a profit. I can see opportunities when looking back over the charts, but real time is a different matter.
I will give it a while longer, but if things don't improve, I will just have to accept that Forex trading is not for me.

Your #1 problem is you do not know whether you are at the beginning, middle, or end of a trend thus putting you in losing positions more often than you should be in. This was a problem of mine that I had to overcome. Try this exercise and see if it helps. On your chart only put on the Sniper Bands, Bollinger Bands, 50SMA, 100SMA, and 200SMA. Now trade the Sniper system. Backtest and you should be able to tell what stage of a trend you are in by paying attention to the MA's. Also look at the MA's as support and resistance lines(or areas). Use no RSI or MACD, its not helping you anyway plus you will see the candlestick patterns on your chart more clearly. Look at anytime frame to test or trade the system. Trading like this can be much better than with indicators because all indicators are lagging. The only real leading indicator is price and that is the candlesticks. This Sniper System works excellent but you just need to realize where you are in a trend. I think this might help you.

Hi Keith,

That is an astute observation. All things are not for all people. Some have a natural ability for a thing, and others can be taught. Then there are those who do not have the ability, nor can they be taught.

From my observation, this is not the case with you and forex. You have the ability. Something else is in the way.

As a fellow trader and student, I see two things that may be hindering your progress, one is technical and the other is emotional or personal.

For the technical, Bill has already hit the target. You seem to have difficulty with the trend. Many of your personal strategy trades were against the trend, and your snipers are often retracements. Granted, the sniper system does not necesarily appear to be a trend system, but is more of a scalp system, hence the name sniper (and why I don't trade it - I don't have the time to be so quick). From my observation, if one is to be successful with the sniper, they must master price action trading alone, and with that the candlestick theory. Again, Bill has already touched on this. Price action trading is referred to as "naked trading", due to the absence of indicators, except for maybe a moving average to help smooth out things and provide direction.

For the emotional/personal, you have a need to win at forex, as expressed by some of your previous posts. You would like to earn a living at this, and your time frame for doing so is short. If you do not get the hang of it, then you feel that there may be some undesirable consequences. Unfortunately, that is not the mindset from which to trade. You must be able to have fun while you learn and trade, not be so attached emotionally to the game. I know this is a very difficult place to get, but you must get there. Of course you must also take it seriously on the other hand, otherwise you can minimize the importance and makes bad mistakes. You must master the balancing act. I recognize this need to win in you because I also suffer from it often.

One other observation, you are a logical thinker. Logical thinkers work best with hard and fast rules. "when this happens, do that" kind of thinking. You want to narrow things down to a science, a exact duplicatable methodology. "when price closes above the middle bb, and MACD is diverging/converging etc... etc... etc... I do this". Forex does not work that way, because price movement is based on random events. We work with probabilities, not certainties, and even though you know better, your natural inclination is to look for some level of certainty. There is some validity to the random walk theory of the markets. You have to have some intuitive flare, some Bond 007. You can't be too rigid. There is enough certainty to make a profit, but it is seasoned with the flavor of experience.

All in all, you've got to find your stride, and it has to be your stride, not someone else's stride. You can stroll along with someone else's stride until you find your own, but you are an individual and there is something which is uniquely yours.

Sit quietly and just watch price action. Tune in with it. Become one with it. Forget analysis, and techniques/strategies, just feel the breathing of the market. It ebbs and flows, like the waves of the ocean. There is a rhythm. Feel that rhythm. It is the rhythm like your heart beat.

At the end of the day, you may conclude that forex is not for you, nor trading in general (didn't you take a stab at stocks?). It is a wise man who can admit when he cannot for whatever reason tackle a thing.

Personally, I think you can do it and if I were putting together a team of traders, I would have you on it for your unique perspective.

Good luck Keith, and I wish you all the best.

Vincent

http://www.forexoma.com/forums/the-journey-of-a-forex-trader-257.html

You must get to stage 3 in order to make it in this business.

Vincent

Yes Vincent that is a good article. I do believe I am a solid stage 4 or a weak stage 5 and I began learning to trade about 18 months ago. I feel good about what I have accomplished but I would like to thank Vahid and give him a lot of credit for shortening my learning curve and making the process less painful(financially). If it were not for his teaching I may have never made it pass stage 2.

Bill

Thanks Bill and Vincent.

I was feeling a bit down when I made that post. Just feeling really frustrated.
I feel that I have the knowledge and ability to be a successful trader, but I am failing to put it into practice.
The school term has just started here in Thailand and so I will have more time. My little 4 year old step-daughter can be very demanding of my time and during the long holiday period, I have found it very difficult to concentrate with constant interruptions. Don't get me wrong, I love her very much and I am so happy that she wants to spend time with me.
One of the problems that I am having is missing trades. I can see a good set-up developing, but so often I am not at the computer when it matures.
With Snipers, when I look back over the charts, I can see that the system works, but when I place trades, they are losing. This means that I am either missing the good trades and catching the bad ones or that spotting set-ups in real time is totally different to spotting them with the benefit of hindsight.
I am starting to get that old feeling that cosmic forces are working against me. I thought that I'd shaken that. The stupid thing is that I know that it's not true. Volatility has finally returned to the stock-markets and I have done very well these last few weeks trading the indices. So if cosmic forces were out to get me, they wouldn't allow me to profit with the stock-markets, would they!

Vincent, I thought that I had had my Eureka moment. When I started this journal about 6 months ago, I was confident that I could place more winning trades than losers, working with probabilities in my favour. My journal started well, the first 5 trades were all winners. I felt that everything had come together. Since then, I have not progressed. Ok, overall, I am not losing, but I'm not winning either. Breaking even month after month has really dented my confidence. It was getting a bit boring to be honest.

I have some problems in other aspects of my life. I will have to return and spend some time in the UK to sort them out and I am feeling a bit depressed. I will just have to snap out of this mood, re-group and get on with it.

Thanks again

Keith

You're the man Bill!!



I agree wholeheartedly. Vahid has shaved off tons of pain and lessened the learning curve greatly.

Vincent

Yes, it is obvious that other things have your attention. We tend to view life from the spectacles we are currently wearing. Just wanted to add some perspective to the clouds.

Hang in there.

Vincent