Hindsight is 20/20 but personally I would not be able to pull the trigger on that trade. Much better trade setup forming on the daily chart but I would be unable to validate entering that trade on the 4 HR chart.

I hit the submit button by mistake with the last post before I had finished.
Funnily enough, I was talking about the BMB with AUD-CAD a few posts back.
The CAD-CHF broke below the support at the close of the 08:00 candle. So with my usual trading method, I would not have taken this trade and would have waited for a break below the BMB.
The break did happen with the next candle, but by then I would probably have not taken the trade
Anyway, as I wrote in the analysis of this pair before the move, I didn't consider the support to be perfect and wasn't really expecting a set up with this pair until next week

It's too late to open a position now as I anticipate that there will be reaction to the support trendline on the daily chart. If the channel holds, then there maybe further opportunities next week

Also marginal divergence on the 4HR chart but yes the biggest red flag was the BBM. Support line not real solid either with the long margin on the first 2 points.

Agreed, one cannot know what one would have done at the time, it's all very easy with hindsight

Thanks Vincent,
I'm quite happy with my progress so far. I don't intend to rush things and try to learn as much as possible.
You can't run before you can walk - hopefully I'm managing a bit of jogging now

Good luck

Keith

The Daily chart EUR-USD shows this pair in a downtrend. Today's candle opened with a gap up that has been filled and though today's candle is not even 5 hours old is almost engulfing Friday's.
I am looking for a continuation of this downtrend, but there is no trade set-up on the daily time-frame as yet.



The H4 chart..
Although it is not so obvious, because it is below the zero line, there is convergence formed with the MACD, also with RSI. It is interesting to note though, that the recent upward move followed convergence with the MACD and RSI. So which is strongest?
A small support line has formed and today's first candle has already closed below that. The current candle is attempting to continue the move with a break of the BMB and RSI 50. It is also breaking below a broken resistance line, but at only 1 hour old, anything can happen before the close of this candle.
I would like to see the price rise and form a new support line before taking a short position based on the H4 chart.



H1 chart..
Quite a nice support line has formed and today's 03:00 candle has already broken below it. It was a long bearish candle and I do not have too much faith in the early candles at the start of the week on the H1.
I would like to see the price rise and test the broken support or a reversal signal at the BMB before opening a short trade based on the H1 chart.

Just coming up to the close of the Daily and H4 candle..
On the H4 a really nice support line has formed and is touch and go as to whether or not the current candle will close below it or not. With no MACD divergence, I really have no clue whether this line will continue to act as support, but certainly any break will not be good enough to take a short position for now.



The daily is not too much help here. It shows this pair in a range. The current candle has reacted to the top of the range and will close as a bearish candle. There has been a resistance break and this candle will close testing this line as support.



So, for the moment, I'm just watching this pair and hope that the chart will give me a better indication after a few more candles.

The AUD-CAD did break support, but only just and not a good enough indication that a short trade would be a good idea.
The current candle is a large bearish candle, so I won't be opening a position with this pair just yet. I'm not very optimistic that there will be a decent testing of the broken support, so back to the drawing board

The Aussie $ and Yen may be a better opportunity.
The daily chart looks to have a quite solid resistance zone. Although making slightly higher highs, the MACD is falling, so definite divergence. This does indicate that there is a chance that the bears may take control for a while.



The H4 has formed an almost perfect double top. There is also divergence with the MACD. The current candle is breaking below a support. RSI is breaking below 50.
Hmmm, while I've been posting this, the price has dropped lower and so this candle is looking a little on the long side.
Have they announce the Australian interest rate yet?



If I decide to go with a short trade with this pair, I'll be looking at a stop at 88.10 and target 85.90, so entry would need to be 87.00
Still 15 minutes before candle close, so I will see what happens

I have opened a short position based on the H4
2% risk
Entry 87.00
Stop 88.10
Target 85.90

Because there is a possible support level at around 86.50, I will reset the stop to break-even if the price reaches this level.

It does seem strange that whenever I see more than one possible trade set-up there is always an overlap with another.
It seems that I am seeing possibilities with CAD and AUD pairs at the moment and nothing much elsewhere.
The GBP-AUD may offer an opportunity soon on the H4 chart. Now this is a very "noisy pair", you can see that by the lengths of the upper and lower candle wicks. A noisy pair is not good to trade with tight stops.
I see that this pair broke support and the broken support has acted extremely well as resistance. Once again the price is headed towards and now testing this broken support line.
A good reversal signal will be enough for me to take a short position. But should the H4 manage to close above this line, then I will forget about it.

I went to catch a few hours sleep and I see that my target has been hit with this trade now

Vincent

When I look at the Daily chart for the GBP-USD I really cannot see any real sense of direction at the moment. I do see a fair bit of volatility though. At the moment I would say that the daily chart neither supports or opposes any possible trade set-ups in the smaller timeframes and so if I spot an opportunity in the lower time-frames it should be allowed to stand alone.



On the H4...
I have 2 recent resistance lines that I have been able to draw. The last 2 significant lows in the price show divergence with the MACD.
Now, the last smaller resistance may look a bit on the steep side, but I'm not so sure.
I still haven't been able to feel totally comfortable with RSI break-outs. Although I accept their validity, I haven't been able to be sure what is a good break and what isn't. However, this RSI resistance line on this chart is almost shouting at me for some reason.
I feel that a break above this resistance coupled with an RSI break-out will be a good signal. I would use the longer resistance as a target, maybe to take profits, maybe to reset the stop to break-even.

Still watching the USD-JPY..
A double top has formed on the Daily chart
The last high taken on the candles" close was slightly lower (6 pips) than the previous closing high, but the intra-candle high was higher. The MACD has formed a lower high. So if you look at the line chart, there is no divergence with the MACD. If you look at the upper wicks then there is divergence.
As the MACD is significantly lower, I'm prepared to accept this as a valid MACD divergence. I would welcome anybodies comments regarding this.
The support trendline has worked well so far and so I consider this support to be trustworthy.
The Bollinger bands have moved into a parallel and almost horizontal position indicating a period of consolidation. There has been a good reversal signal at the BUB. If the price goes up and makes a new high, then I will have to re-think the situation. If the price fails to make a new high and can manage to close below the support, I will consider this a good short trade set-up on the Daily chart. There has already been a support break with the RSI, so this strengthens the position. A support break would also probably mean a break below RSI 50 which would increase my confidence further



There has already been a break below 2 support trendlines on the H4 chart, but there was not really too much to support a short position in this timeframe at the time of the breaks. Depending on what happens, a testing of the broken support as resistance may offer a viable trade, but I'm really looking for a trade on the Daily chart at the moment.

The support break happened on the USD-JPY Daily chart - and what a break!



The world stockmarkets went potty on Thursday. The Dow Jones plunging by almost 10% at one stage There are rumours that there was an erroneus trade placed in billions instead of millions that sparked the sell-off. Certainly I have never seen moves like that. There were moves happening in seconds that would usually be a one day trading range.



Obviously the sell off triggered a lot of traders' stop-losses and the fall snowballed in a hectic 15 minute period. 20 minutes later, the index had risen again to recover most of the losses. Asian traders were roused from their beds to salvage what they could.
I guess that some people made a lot of money, but there must have been many that have been caught out and stopped out with big losses.
Once again, a fall in the stock-markets has strengthened the USD, but the Yen has benefited most of all.

Anyway, the bearish candle that broke support is just too long and so I have not opened a short position.
I will be surprised if I can spot a trade set-up today as these are far from normal positions.

As I wrote in the FLMA main thread, I really have never paid much attention to the 30 minute charts.
Vahid's recently added strategy has encouraged me to look at the M30 more closely and I am almost certain that the various candlestick patterns seem to be more trustworthy in this time-frame.
It will take a while for me to fully understand Vahid's snipers (if ever), but as I now will be trying to follow his strategy, and have a profile of M30 charts I will also be trying to make trades based just on the Bollinger bands and candlestick patterns. It's a method that has been nagging in the back of my mind for quite a time now, so I think that I should give it a try.
I'm not going to sit at the computer all day in order to spot these trades, but will just take any that I happen to see. I will post if I see any possible trade set-ups developing.
These trades will be made with a demo account. I'm not prepared to risk real cash, because I have no idea if this is a viable way to trade, I haven't investigated it enough.

This is an example with the GBPUSD



The very recent move has been down. The price has broken above the BMB and this current candle is likely to close as a bearish engulfing.
This will be a short trade set-up with a stop-loss at just above the recent high, so 1.4945. Target based on 1:1

So I have opened a short position on the demo account and so will see how this pans out.
Entry is 1.4875
Stop is 1.4945
Target is 1.4805

Target hit so 70 pips profit with this first demo trade - Beginners luck?