I didn't accuse you. I say these are forming trade setups that also can be seen on the Forexoma members report.

As far as I know, trading journal is something else. This is not a trading journal. This is Forex market analysis report.

Isn't a journal supposed to record trade set-ups that I am considering and the reasons why?
If it was just a series of "Trades I have entered" and winners and losers, I can do that with an excel spreadsheet.

I have purposely avoided trade set ups that mimic Vahid's, so I still don't understand why you have a problem

Two of your screenshots are exactly the same as what we have on the report. Your GBP-USD daily and one hour charts.

My screenshots include today's first candles, but apart from that, yes they are the same as Vahid's. But they are charts - how can I make them different? They reflect the market price, so what can I do? The highs and lows on Vahid's charts and mine are the same, so if we connect the lows and highs to form support and resistance, they are usually going to be in the same place.
I posted the Daily, H4 and H1 charts to show that very recent price action, ie from today's open was bullish, but may not last. However, there was reasonable evidence on the 15 minute chart for a forming trade that may only be held for a very short time.
Vahid did not mention the 15 minute chart on his report and made no recommendation for any trade with this pair. That's why I didn't consider it any sort of conflict to post my analysis, because it didn't reflect anything from Vahid's weekly report.
The only thing the same is the charts - and millions of people are looking at exactly the same chart right now.

Keith

I am sure that if Vahid has any issue with what you are doing he will let you know. I remember Joe posting early on concerned about discussing Vahids reports in a public forum (I had wondered about this too but didn't ask) and Vahid was ok with that.
I personally welcome what you are doing and would rather Vahid made the board - or that area - members only rather than discourage us from sharing as you do.

All the best

Michael

Thank you Michael,
I hope that Vahid will post his thoughts concerning this.
I really can't see that there is a problem if non members are able to read this. Some of my analysis will be similar to Vahid's, that can't be helped, but I have honestly tried not to post anything that reflects Vahid's trade set-ups.
Anybody who reads this will have no idea whether my posts are 100% my own or are influenced by Vahid's reports, so what can they gain?

Cheers
Keith

Your posts.....





I believe that anybody reading your comments would interpret them as you accusing me of simply copying the charts and analysis from Vahids report.

When I ask that you explain why you think this, your response is that 2 screenshots of the charts are the same. No mention of why you consider the analysis the same?

I have re-read my posts and I am comfortable that I have in no way copied from the reports.
There are some similarities between my analysis of the EURUSD that I posted at the weekend and Vahid's analysis in the weekly report. But as I made the EUR-USD post before the weekend report was released I cannot have copied it from Vahid.

Hi Keith,

Everybody - including JoeTrader - knows that they are your own analysis. He just talked about two of the screenshots that look almost the same. I do not think that he is trying to offend you or accuse you for anything because he also knows you as one of the most active members of this forum.

This is a forex discussion board after all and people should be free to share their insights and analysis and ask for others help and ideas. So please go ahead

Thanks Vahid, maybe I'm too sensitive !
But Joe's avatar is scary
I wouldn't have got so upset if Joe had just mentioned that the charts were the same, but felt very disappointed when he commented that the analysis was the same as in your weekend report.
I've put a lot of thought and effort into making these posts. My thought processes mainly stem from your teaching, so any similarities just go to prove what a good teacher you are

I've built up a lot of respect for you and Joe during my time on this forum, so Joe's comments really stung me.

Thanks again

Keith

You are welcome!

I am sure he meant just the screenshots and not your words. Because some part of the analysis is on the screenshots.

By the way, please forget it. We are all friends here. JoeTrader is also a friend. His "security life" has made him too secure, like CIA agents

And I admit that he is scary

Well this trade worked out. It very nearly broke support, but didn't, so the deal was not cancelled
I opened the trade when the M15 candle broke out and closed above the range.
The candle closed at 1.6541, By the time I opened the trade it was up 1 pip at 1.6542 so with the spread of 3 pips, long entry at 1.6545

Long entry at 1.6545
Stoploss 1.6525
Target reached 1.6585

1% risked at 20 pips
Gain of 40 pips
Profit 2% of bank

This was only intended as a short-term trade as on the 15 minute chart, hence the tight stoploss.

CAD-JPY

On the daily chart, it broke support on Friday, but has climbed above it today. With less than 2 hours before the close of the daily candle, this will probably mean that the support is invalidated and I will have to find a new one.
No real clues from the daily chart as there is no distinctive market direction.



The H4 chart shows that the bulls have been in control all day today, but can they keep up the momentum? At the moment the price is showing reaction to the resistance line. Ideally I'd like to see it go down for a few candles and then take a run at the resistance again. I'm not keen to take a long position if this current H4 candle breaks resistance as it can be difficult for the bulls to stay in charge without the bears pushing them down a bit.
So this one is back on my watch-list and with luck maybe there will be a trade set-up sometime tomorrow.

It looks like the CAD-JPY set-up is not developing as I had hoped it would. The price is moving sideways and if it just blunders sideways into and breaks resistance, it's not a true breakout. I will have to bide my time with that one.


GBP-USD

On the daily chart the price is in no mans land, above the broken and tested resistance and above the bollinger middle band. It could go in either direction from here.

On the H4 chart there have been 2 reversal signals, a spinning top, above the bollinger upper band followed by a bearish engulfing candle. The last H4 candle closed as a spinning top doji. It's also looking overbought. Definite indications of a pending reversal.
But is it enough to go short? Not just yet. Good indications on the H4, but will need further confirmation.



Looks a little different on the H1 chart.
The price has reacted to the support line 4 times already, so a nicely validated line. This support has spent most of its life above the bollinger middle band, which is not a good thing, but it has stayed close to the band for the last 12 candles.
There is a slight divergence with the MACD and it is showing as overbought on the Williams %R.
The current H1 candle is below the support and bollinger middle band. If it closes below these levels, there is enough indication to go short.

Stoploss 1.6730
Target 1.6630

If the current candle closes below 1.6680, the risk/reward will not be sufficient, so the trade will be cancelled.
So with less than 30 minutes to go, the candle close below support but no lower than 1.6680 and I will enter short.

Well the H1 candle has just closed, and the support proved to be very resilient!
A case of waiting until the close of the next H1 candle now.



If this trade does develop into a goer, I will risk 2% of my bank

Well, I waited until the close of the 06:00 candle, and it finally broke support, the problem was that it was a very long candle and closed below my minimum entry level of 1.6680. As we have been taught by Vahid, in a situation like this, we wait and see if there is a testing of the broken support and a better entry opportunity. If it happens and we get a deal, great, if not, move on as there will be another opportunity along soon.
I had to go out shopping then, so I've just returned home and see that the price did go as expected and then some! It could even break support on the H4 chart, but I wouldn't be prepared to risk that after such a long H4 candle.

Hi Keith

Thanks for posting this. Good analysis and even better discipline at not taking the trade because it didn't meet your criteria. I am working hard at developing the attitude that I can win from trades I don't take because I can learn from the analysis anyway. I still suffer from 'woulda, coulda, shoulda' but it is getting better with treatment

Michael

Michael - thank you Soooo much for posting, it means a lot to me. I was starting to think that everybody had lost interest
It took me years to be able to stick to the discipline to stay out of a trade if it didn't seem good enough (Stockmarkets). It's actually only very recently that I have been able to control my eagerness with better success. Discipline is one area that I hope I will be ok with when I learn more about Forex.
'woulda, coulda, shoulda' - yes I know exactly what you mean. The 5 AM candle closed above support and then 2 minutes later broke support and the bollinger middle band - if only the servers clock had been 2 minutes slow

Trade set-ups are hard to find at the moment. USD-CHF looks like there may be a possible trade developing, but absolutely nothing really hopeful.
I've only posted 1 trade since I started this journal and hope that more opportunities will present themselves soon. But as Vahid says, you have to wait for the market to give the signals.

Cheers Michael (just having a beer before I'm off for a few hours shuteye)

Keith

The stockmarkets and Forex markets of the world have been taking their lead from the huge USA markets recently.
In my opinion, for what it is worth, fundamentals really do not support the extreme bullishness in the stockmarkets, but US sentiment has continued to force the indices higher.
Thanksgiving, and the US slumbers British and German stock indices tumble more than 3% and there are wild moves in the Forex market.
I have absolutely no idea what the markets will do when the US wakes up after its holiday. Maybe it's best to wait for some more sensible movements in the markets and finish for the week now.
At the moment, I find myself unable to draw new support/resistance lines on my charts and the old lines do not appear too reliable.
There may be some opportunities with the smaller timeframes as new support/resistance line present themselves.

Thanks for posting your thoughts Keith! I think it is very usefull and I hope i will be able to contribute soon!