CAD-JPY


Hello Vincent,
Personally, I do not pay much attention to the MACD as regards trends, it lags the action too much. I believe that it's strength as an indicator is that convergence or divergence with the recent price highs/lows does increase the likelihood of a trend reversal.
Actually, as these are the charts from Vahid's profiles, I may make some changes to the MACD. I prefer the 5/34/5 as recommended by Bill Williams in his "Trading Chaos" book. The 5 signal line can be very useful.




Yes, I think that it does show that it is best to wait for confirmation. When the 4 hour candle was yet to complete, it looked like it would be a confirmation candle, but it needed to close above the high of the previous candle for me to be reasonably sure. Although the previous candle was a bullish engulfing candle, it did have quite a long upper wick.

As it happens, what looked to be a reversal signal has now morphed into a continuation signal.

I think that is is a pretty good example to show Kel. I could have simply put a stop buy order in for when the price exceeded the previous candle's high. If I had, I would be sorry now. It is important (most times) to wait for the candle to close.

Vahid, we are discussing the CAD-JPY

Please feel free to make any contribution that you like. I WANT people to make comments and input ideas and theories. Maybe we can all learn a little more from each other.
The bulls are pressuring to break down the recent low and so it really is a case of waiting to see if there is a second reversal signal or a good indication to take a short position.
At the moment, it's a case of waiting to see what the candles will tell us

I hope that I will spot a valid trade set up soon, as maybe it will get boring if I have to keep indicating possible trades that I do not take.

Hi Keith,

To go short, the current weekly candle should close below the support line. If you go short now, it may hit your stop loss.


Also the last daily candle has closed above the support line.

CAD-JPY

Vahid,
thanks for taking the time to post here, I know that you must be busy with the report

Yes, I totally agree with you, there is unlikely to be a good shorting opportunity with this pair for the immediate future.
There seem to be many support levels, but not too much by way of resistance. With a second reversal signal, I would give careful consideration to a long position.
Of course it will require a few more candle's close to be able to make a decision, so nothing doing for now.

GBP-AUD

Although the very long term trend is definitely down, there are signs of a local uptrend on the daily chart. At the moment the GBP-AUD is about 200 pips below the resistance line and the upper bollinger. Yesterday's daily candle closed above the bollinger middle band (20SMA).
The price has touched support 3 times, so has made higher lows. As yet it has not made higher highs but could well be in the process of doing so.
Although the daily chart does give some indication of a bullish move - there is nothing conclusive.



The H4 chart. I did have a sloping resistance line, but the same as in many other recent charts, it has been unreliable, so I have removed it. At the moment the price has shown reaction to the recent high and formed a small double top, so I prefer to use this as resistance level.
The support line is a totally different matter. I Like the look of the support. The price has shown reaction to this line 4 times and the support is almost perfectly in line with the bollinger middle band.



When I add a Fib to the H4 chart I see that the price retraced to 61.8% of the recent rise before continuing upwards



Not everything is ideal about this trade, in particular getting so close to the point of the triangle. But I like the strong support and the fib, so if it tests the support once more and follows up with a break above the recent high and 100% Fib level, it will indicate a long position.

GBP-AUD

Well, since my last post this has moved pretty much as I hoped. It has tested support and the bulls are keeping up the pressure.
The stockmarkets are going down at the moment and the USD is strengthening. The GBP is falling against the USD, but pretty much holding its own against the AUD.
Theres still 1 and half hours before the current candle closes..



..but even if it does break up now, it is too late on a Friday to enter a trade. I cannot risk a nasty opening gap going against me at the Monday open. I will just have to hope that I will still see opportunity with this pair on Monday.

Now it's time to call it a week, shut down the computer and eat with my beautiful wife and have fun with my daughter. My daughter has just come and climbed onto my lap and reminded me that the weekend has started. Right now I am rich in so many ways that money cannot give you. But I hope to become a successful forex trader and be able to help my daughter on the road to a happy life - money is not everything, but it certainly helps.

Vahid,

Sorry about that - it is the CADJPY.
Here is the screenshot, the inverted cup, if it is one, is above the red line.
I drew a pencil line to outline it.

Regards and have a good weekend,
Kel

Hi Kel,

Yes. That is a beautiful invested cup and handle pattern which has already broken down. I think the weekly candle will close below the triangle support line and so we will have sell signal for the next week.

Hi Keith and Vahid,
How about if we have taken a position in Friday morning and still haven't reached the TP, which one better, close it or just make it open until monday?

Thanks

If you are still happy with the signal (it is a strong signal) and you know that it will hit the target, you can leave it open.

EUR-USD

Just some of my thinking about the EUR-USD

On the daily chart, it closed Friday with a break of support.



But can it be trusted? We previously had a divergence with the MACD so there are signs that it wants to go down.
I think that we have to be careful here as 4 days ago, the candle tested both support and resistance. Also the last 2 candles have quite long lower wicks and very short upper. To me, this indicates that the recent market is bearish, but the bulls are not giving in without a fight!

H4 Chart...



It has already broken support on the 4 hour chart and now looks to be going up to test the broken support as resistance. It will possibly hit the broken support and bollinger middle band at the same time. It will be interesting to see whether the bulls or bears will win this battle.

WEEKLY Chart



Although it appears that it broke the support line a few weeks ago, this support line is unreliable. It is well above the bollinger middle band and too steep. When a support line is too steep, the price can go higher, yet still stay below the broken support.
So no real clues are given by the weekly chart, except the long term trend is definitely up, but the Euro is starting to show signs of weakness. The candle that broke the (unreliable) support was an engulfing candle. In fact it engulfed the previous 2 candles that both closed above the bollinger upper band. A pretty good reversal signal, but as Vahid has stressed, in situations like this, he does not take the first reversal signal and waits for further confirmation and he would have been right.

Keith,
I love what you are doing. Great Job. I have one quick question, where are you located?

Hello Sunking

I'm English, but I live in the North-East of Thailand, 25 Km from the nearest city, so I can get most comforts, but I'm the lone foreigner in the village.
I used to have satellite internet that cost about 90 US$ per month and very slow and erratic. Now I have CDMA which is G3 wireless and much better Cheaper to at about 30$ per month.
Still not a patch on Western internet service, but a step in the right direction.

GBP-USD

As I mentioned before, I'm not so keen to trade USD pairs at the moment, because of the irrational behaviour due to what is happening in the stockmarkets.
The stockmarket futures are slightly up today and the USD is showing a bit of weakness.

Daily Chart has tested and closed above support on Friday and the action is positive so far today.



On the H4 chart there has been some very strong bearish pressure and the the bears are tired from the strain. The bulls fought the battle hard and managed to wrest control from the bears. The last few candles, the bulls have kept up the pressure. Still not a good signal to go long though.
Because of the recent bear strength, there is not really any good place to draw a decent support line yet. But the candles are going up and have moved above the bollinger lower band.
No trade on the H4 at the moment.



H1 only tells us very little , but the price has flattened and started to rise



Sometimes, I will trade the M15 chart.
On the 15 minute chart the price has been stuck in a range. The more recent candles have made a series of higher highs and the price is now near the top of the range.
A breakout on the close of an M15 candle above the range and I will go long. A break below the local support and the trade will be cancelled.
I will only risk 1% of my bank on the M15 chart and this trade would be opened with a 20 pip stoploss. Initial target 40 pips.

Edit - 15 minute chart didn't work will repost chart in next post

Here's the 15 minute chart



The break, one way or another should happen in the next candle or 2. Note, I will not go short it a break down of support. This will just mean that the trade is cancelled

These are the forming trade setups from the members area.

Sorry Joe,

I don't quite understand what you mean!
Can you please tell me why you think this?

Keith

I mean these are the charts and analysis of the last weekly report from Forexoma Live Market Analysis Program.

Joe, the charts are the same, because I am using the FXPro account. Sometimes they are going to be the same. That can't be helped.
But Vahid didn't mention anything about a break out of the 15 minute range.
There will also be some similarities in analysis, after all I am learning from Vahid, but I try to make it my own analysis, not just plagiarise Vahid.
How can you say that my analysis of the GBPUSD is the same as Vahids?

I did say in my first post that it may be better to use charts from Alpari, maybe that's what I should have done. Then I couldn't be accused of just copying Vahid's report.
Does anybody else think that I am copying?