Hey Jarek,
You know I mentioned the overnight breakout and that I'm currently researching it...
Sometimes dontcha wish that you were in on a trade instead of just monitoring?

Hi Keith

Not quite an overnight breakout, this channel has been building for a week now. I have noticed before that MACD can make this sort of slope toward the zero line while the price ranges and then there is a breakout which continues the previous trend. I'm thinking about taking a trade on a breakout from this, any thoughts?

Ta

Michael

Hi Michael,
I had a thought; The GBP/USD doesn't look bad. I plotted the two resistance lines, I am looking too at H4, attached image. Candle is just at the BBM and the resistance, can break upwards?

There is another small resistance line ~30pips above current price, top of the triangle (small but connects a few heights). Daily and weekly all look for possible bullish, MACD's good as well. H1 is already over the BBM. Plus on H4 the parabolic SAR's are still outside of the BBB which shows bullish too, the dots on the image.

I took GBP/JPY it is going well for now, but Sydney market not always but very often overturns price till they close session.

Yours USA/JPY trade you took is doing well! Thanks for sharing...

Hello Michael and Jarek,

When you have a range like this, it's difficult to know how to respond when a breakout occurs. I think that Vahid's article on Finonacci covers the 2 best methods with either trading the breakout and using fibonnaci to set your target levels or wait for a retracement after the breakout.

http://www.forexoma.com/more-about-usin ... /#more-194

I don't know if either of you know the term "Bollinger squeeze".
Notice the bollinger bands tightening and almost horizontal and parallel. Notice how, on Michael's chart his range lines are almost exactly the same as the bollinger upper and lower bands.
Trading a break-out from the bollinger squeeze can lead to some very good gains, but best used in conjunction with other analysis.

The last breakout from a bollinger squeeze with Cable was on the 8th October. Unfortunately, it only continued upwards for 80 pips before dropping back again. Possibly enough to set a stop to break-even, but not a great break-out!



Previously in July...



Make of it what you will, but the bollinger squeeze can work well at times, but I find it seems to work better in the lower H1 time-frame.
I haven't researched the possibility of using Vahids Fibonacci strategies with the squeeze as yet, but it is something that I may do if/when I have time

Looks I haven't checked the thread for some time.
Keith you are absolutely right about Bollinger Band squeeze. The thing is I use horizontal lines on the 1 Hr chart frame and then go down to the 15mins chart and see what is the proce reaction to the line. With this technique - yes a false breakouts are always a portion of trades. I found useful to protect the capital and if there is 15mins candle closing below/above horizontal line and then next candle is reveresing the whole movea nd closes back into the range and then continues toi do the opposite that's it I'm "killing" this trade - at least I won't take a full S/L which is located above the opposite marging of the range (minimising the loss). Thank you all for coming into here to post, all this is very valuable.
Micheal mentioned MACD and it's relationship to this kind of breakout. I'm by no means experience enought to tell, amybe Vahid will give us some clues about it ?
Kind regards to All,
Happy Pipping
Jarek

...and again, as this is my trading journal I'm sorry to announce another full loss (-3%) on the signal. No trades now opened.
I know it's tempting to take the EUR/GBP trade in this circumastances but I will wait and sit on the hands.
This is the best I can do for the account which so far is running negative on the signals in December.
This breakout EUR/GBP is like twin brother of the failed NZD/USD breakout. The candle closing only touch below (like previous NZD/USD trade)the line support which has its origin in August 2009 - so very long time frame and the line may be somewhat innaccurate in my opinion in this place as there is no previous price action for many months.
Also Vahid is not recommenidng this as a "official" signal as well.
Lets hope for nice runner but markets are really difficult to trade these days so maybe just sit and observe for a while, instead to give money to the brokers
Too noisy and difficult for me for now.

Hello Dear All,
Hope you had a nice and family Holidays.
Now probably everybody is gearing up for the New Year, closing the old year, planning New Year resolutions etc. As far as the FOREX market is concerned for me, last year I decided:
I would develop discipline, learn basics and do some progress, if not the year 2009 would be my last in the markets.
I have suffered some serious loss previously entering the market not very well prepared (if at all) with a thought: "I'll be reach in no time and give up daily job once and forever". Now when I'm thinking about it I just one BIIIIIG feeling like a complete fool. Ok enough with these ramblings.
Simple as that I was able to stay in the market thanks to Vahid's teaching and his service -no single doubt about that. I don't know what's the New Year is going to bring but one thing is sure I will continue to learn here and hope to learn even more.
Latest results on my account: USD/SEK signal has brought +2.25% profit (I used 1:0.75 R:R strategy) of course could go for more but that's me and I'm very happy with this result. So far no other ideas as I decided to see what's the market wants to do in the last trading week.

Thank you too Jarek

I hope 2010 to be a great year for you. Your decision on building your discipline is the only thing that can make 2010 a great forex year for you. In forex trading, system is 1% and 99% is your own discipline that forces you not to violate your system rules. Without discipline, no system will be profitable.

Thank you Vahid for all your good wishes, help and for having a peek at my newbie thread here.


Regards
Jarek

Wish You all here the best in the New Year, let Your dreams become true and all the best for Your relatives.
Happy New Year to everybody here, lets enter the new year with new plans, dreams and hopes, let it be the most profitable year in all.

Special wishes to our teacher and mentor, Vahid you are doing execptional job here helping us to understand the markets and your commitment is unique. Let it be the best year for You in all possible aspects.
Cheers !

Thank you Jarek. All the best wishes to you, your family and everybody here on Forexoma.com

I am not a teacher nor a mentor. I just share something I have learned. I learn a lot for you too. So we are helping each other.

Hello Dear All,
I have just looked through the charts while waiting for Vahid's masterpiece of weekly analysis. I can't do it on my own as he does so I have just browsed through the charts to look for some long term setups.
My attention was focused on the EUR/AUD pair, it looks like the pair has reached its multiyear low (hasn't been there since creation of the Euro currency ) and now sits at the levels not seen since 2000.

On top of that I have counted 13 bearish monthly candles, so it screams for a reversal. However fundamentaly it doesn't look so. Aussie economy is pretty strong and old fart Europe is struggling with its overregulated economy and high level of state interventionism, so it may look like trying to catch a falling knife here
However despite that I still think it needs some correction and rebound, so now weekly chart shows a dragonfly doji with a relative long lower shadow closing above lower BB. I know it needs a confirmation but I'm ready to enter the position on the breakout of the candlestick (marked with the green line) with a S/L marked with the red line.

As this weekly chart I will keep this trade as long as possible and minimal take profit is BB middle band - marked with yellow elipse. I wonder what is your take on this one ??

Hello Jarek,
Personally I would not be looking for anything but a short position if based solely on the weekly chart. It's in a strong downtrend and there is only that it is looking oversold on the RSI to indicate a possible reversal.
Of course, it is bound to turn eventually, but we have no idea when. So with the weekly chart, the safest option is probably to look for a shorting opportunity.

The Daily chart does give more indication of a possible reversal.
The price has already broken a resistance trendline (but not a particularly good line IMO) and there is convergence with the MACD. The MACD is rising and the MACD signal line indicates a Buy. The price showed immediate reaction to the bollinger lower band - no fluffing around the edge. There could quite easily be a rise of 300 - 500 pips, but I would expect the downtrend to resume at any time really.
A break of the BMB and RSI 50 may be a good time to open a long position if based on the Daily.
But..
the bollinger bands are tightening and this suggests to me that there is more likely to be a period of sideways movement while the market decides where it would like to go.



Of course, this is just my opinion and please don't allow me to influence your decisions. But you did ask for our "take on this one"

Good luck

Keith

Hi Keith,
Thank you very much for your reply and insight - that is really very valuable (having in mind your dedication and growing experience in chart analysis).
I know this ( so far) a contrarian trade, so I'm aware of its risk. However as you rightly noticed a daily chart is trying to turn the corner on the price action and also on 4HRS the price has broken a resistance line and if it retests and closes above it or will test and close above middle BB I will have more confirmation.
I don't mind the opposite opinions at all as we all looking at the charts differently and there are many ways you can skin the Forex cat