No probs Mate, can't wait to see.
Regards to You all
Jarek

Thank you very much Vahid again.
This trade set up yield a little more than 1:1, I know I could let it run, ok then. But I know there will be another trade somewhere around the corner so I can take it.

Hello All Gang,

Just reviewing Vahid's article on doji candlestick and Bollinger Bands.
I must say all his articles is the core stuff every aspiring trader should know about basics of technical analysis, no doubt. I always read them with a great interest cause everysingle one of them is value itself.
This time second look on the set up and one realises it still can go lower before Bank of Japan will do intervention in markets.
The whole candlestick closed below Lower Border of Bollinger Bands - means there is still a strong tendency for the market to down ? (would it be correct ?)
The fact that Japanese banks were buyers of the USD/JPY pair last week doesn't mean a things alone. At least this what I've seen last week by reading news feed and then comparing it to the real volume of orders entered the market.
In this situation equally possible is to go down and retest deeper than the low of the previous candle. In that circumstances I'm hesitating about whole validity of this setup at the moment.
And the golden rule is if you are hesitating to enter then stand aside and observe.
What do you think Guys ?

[quote="pakiestra"]Hello All Gang,

The whole candlestick closed below Lower Border of Bollinger Bands - means there is still a strong tendency for the market to down ? (would it be correct ?)

Conflicting schools of thought on this one. However I beleive the general consensus tend to think this is an early reversal signal. Better yet if the shadows stay outside the BB.

Thank you very much for your reply Chillidog - I like the nickname
That's a very valuable insight.
This is the thing, for me initailly looked as a good place for a reversal. Unless again we will witness another historic events and dollar's gonna go down even more. Overall I will it give it a go as planned first with the same 1% risk, well if it goes against me I will have loss trade 1% of the account. I wonder where the market is going to be opened. Anybody has an access to the futures now ?
Let's have some nice start of the week. Long USD/JPY 10 pips above the upper wick of the last Dragonfly Doji candle. Fisrt TP are previous bar lows and close prices - slightly less than a full 1:1 (that's because the lower shadow is huge size of 200pips (
Happy Pips to everybody,

Biggest thing that worries me about your trade is that the pair is still very bearish on the weekly chart. You are right but your timing may be a little early. Pair still has room to go down. I am no expert though. Good Luck!

That's correct as far as the weekly chart is being considered. This pair has still some room to go down, whilst luring many inexperienced traders like myself into long position. 80.00 - 79.61 is the lowest price zone for the pair (April 1995)so there is still some potential for a downmove. 80.00 seems like a round number liked by everybody and maybe when the price will get to this historic law, the BoJ will intervene in markets ?? Have no idea.
On the other hand like Vahid advises I can still wait for the nexty daily candle to close for a confirmation signal. That could be a hedged bet on this pair. As I mentioned at the beginning - I don't particularly like this pair - don't know why, maybe I can't read the charts well enough and this pair is somewhat tricky in its behaviour ??
Waiting for confirmation and staying would be probably the best plan for now.

Update, I took this trade anyway, got a microscopic type of profit -closed 50% lot and rest closed at BE. Then I've seen this red candle, which didn't confirm buy signal so I said to myself, good you have not been waiting (cause I thought it's gonna go down and hit a full S/L. However this trade proves that there are no proves in the markets. Looks like the price stalled around my line of support resistance on the daily now.
Interestening developments.
Unfortunatley I took full loss on CAD/CHF signal(and that's is probably not only mine outcome), then I took small gain on NZD/JPY. Overall so far the week is negative for me
Keep calm, the next trade is just round the corner.It's gonna be ok anyway.
BTW couldn't take EUR/USD short as was away with friends on dinner and that could at least have done breakeven (which I consider as a "sort of gain". Setup worked up pretty well, now it looks like it's trying to retrace on holders. I'm actually now buying EUR/USD as there is some breakout on the 15min chart - that's mine own interpretation, please take it into a consideration (I'm not Pro), plan is RR 1:1, if this one fails I just close trading platform for 24hrs (whatever then happens) and re-assess the situation as there is a terrible choppiness in the price action now.
Anyway that is sort of stuff you have to learn to manage psychologically to stop you from jumping again into the same losing trade, worse oversizing the lots or revenge trading.
Hope Everybody is doing fine and doing much much better than myself struggling a bit. I'm considering now taking 50% of total position in EUR/CAD long for long for months or so.
.So what happens this time.We shall see.
Kind regards to everybody
Happy Pipping

All I can say is
This week the worst.
Missed long USD/JPY, CAD/CHF full loss, breakeven on NZD/JPY, unable to take short EUR/USD which hit TP3, just want to close this damned computer and leave it away.
I'm leaving it till Monday but the price action this week was nothing short of sucking

Hi Chillydog,
I am not na expert by no means too, just at the beginning of the learning curve
Looks like now weekley USD/JPY has a right candle to go up.
I will re-entry this trade at the 88.00 - 88.50 levels with 1.5% risk (this is risk level for my own personal trade ideas). Vahid's setups I easily giving them 3% ) as they are in about 70-80% spot on !! This tactique helps me to protect the gains and keep the balance between winners and loosers.

Hope you are having a nice weekend.
Cheers

You may be correct. I will pay attention to the 21 EMA before I make such a bold prediction. However, I like your attitude.

I need to catch up with lots of post here to read.
Let's hope for a good weekend with lots of pips in the bag

... of the new week. Took long on AUS/JPY 4 HRS signal and anotherfull loss and bummer !
What's going up ?
Anyway down on signals -6% of the account so far for the last week and a half (that missed EUR/USD trade would have made a difference decreasing the extend of losses).
Price is chopping around, the account is giving up the gains, not rosy picture (considering I've just started to be profitable) month to month in the last 3 months. But that hard worked profits are evaporating.

The signal was to get in at 82.89, wasnt it? I assume you went ahead and got in alittle early then. I only say that because price never got to 82.89 AUD/JPY. So the trade was never or has not been triggered as of yet. Well, don't worry about it. Your not going to be right on all of them, which is why money management is so important. it allows you to stay in the game alot longer.

... I got ahead myself today with the entry. I thought having a lower entry is tempting because of added pips. I shouldn't "shot gun" this trade like that. Ok lessons learnt, reinforced.
Lots of things to learn and develop to be profitable trader for me.

Hello Dear All,
As a noob I'm still struggling with basic problems like psychology, consistency and not even mentioning analysis (as I'm not sure how much weight my considerations are carrying)
So today no signals, no trade.
Instead I've started to read again this position. I think many of you experienced traders have read this os similar.
Anyway for me is like very important mind refresher.
Please find an attached file if you want to read it too.

Kind regards
Jarek

Hello Jarek,
one of the hardest lessons to learn is patience. Try not to worry about missing a few pips by getting in before a trade set-up is validated.
It can be frustrating to see so many possibles that don't mature into viable trades.
If you are new to trading, you can expect to take 2 years before you can trade with confidence. It may well be sooner with Vahid's guidance.
If you are trading with real money, be careful and only play with what you can afford to lose.

Shouldn't this thread be in the journals section?

Good luck

Keith

On daily basis I'm applying strict money management rules and not risking more than 3% on Vahid's setups and 0.5 to 1% on my own thoughts (looks so far hopelessly inaccurate). I have been through the phase of overtrading and no money management. One blown account was a fair punishment.
Now I have second account with the view I can't afford it to go bust. So far it's up and down, wondering around rather than truly growing.



I have already asked Vahid to move it to a proper section.
Thank you very much for a chance to read your analysis and all kind words
Happy trading to You All,

BTW: today's proce action is nothing short of choppiness. I have read somewhere that as the year end's coming liquidity is very low so price just chops rather that move in a direction.
I will try to use only 1:1 or 1:0.75 RR then, today I have chosen 1:2 option and was unfortunately stoped.
This "sluggishness" was highlighted by Vahid in today's section. I wonder what to think about it ?
Is this liquidity a real issue or just another humbug spread deliberately to confuse ?

Hello again Jarek,

Actually if your account is moving up and down, not really growing, but more importantly, not really diminishing - you are probably doing very well.
Most people expect to start trading and immediately make a small fortune (Remember that old cookie "The best way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one"! ...it applies here).
Realistically, your first aim should not be to get rich, but simply Not To Lose Money.
Once you are at the stage where your winning trades are cancelling your losses, you are on your way.

Hi Jarek,
I can rely to what you said. It seems it's wise to monitor (or as someone called it "babysit") all trades aimed higher than T1 till at least the S/L is moved to brake even. If possible. I am already adjusting my sleeping patterns!