Hi Guys

I'm new to the forum and wanted to ask something, apologies if it has been covered before. i didnt see it anywhere.

before i start would just like to say this is an excellent site Vahid, i've learned a great deal and find the videos really useful.

I have been subscribed for a while now and i think i am getting better at finding the technical setups.
am i right in thinking that once you have the technical setup ie a break through on resistance or support if you have support from rsi, macd and different timeframes, IF you have news predicted to support the direction for say later today - that you take the trade once the breakout has been confirmed via 4hr candles.

i am trying to establish if it is better to wait for the news to break and then place trade or do it as soon as the breakout looks like its estrablished and knowing the expected news.

any thoughts / help would be appreciated

regards
pipman

As a general rule you place your trade at the close of the 4 HR candle that breaks the support/resistance line.

thanks Chillydog - may i ask, how do you factor in fundamentals in this instance

regards
Ppipman

Frankly I don't trade the news. I've found a good strong signal is a good strong signal. I keep the news in the back of my mind and am aware of what it is suppose to do and that may lead me to take a not so strong signal. But like I say, if you just focus on trading strong signals you will do jusy fine.

I'd just like to add that most times the market anticipates the news and the expected results are quite similar to expectations. This means that the news is already priced into the market.
It is usually only when the actual results are different to what is anticipated that there is a large movement.
Trading the news is a whole new ballgame and it is probably best to stick to technical analysis.
Some people do open short term trades when news items are announced and are looking for 30 to 50 pip movements on something like GBP-USD, but it is easy to get caught out by slippage with some brokers.

Keith

Totally agree with you Keith. Trading the news like you say some folks do is more like gambling to me and has nothing to do with trading.

thanks Keith and Chillydog for your help so far, I really appreciate the points you are making.

When I trade I am taking technical analysis as the foundation for the trade, my understanding is that the more timframes you have supporting trend in the expected direction the better.
I trade 4hr using daily weekly and monthly to analyse trends
I use bollinger bands + middle band - and try to combine this with macd and rsi, mainly on 4hr and daily
Use support and resistance lines, triangles, formations etc
All the while looking at candle... size, strength + signal

i am keeping a journal for recording trades and have been monitoring weekly performance - which has improved

i note from the vidoes that Vahid promotes the use of fundamentals in combination with the above and that was what i was trying to understand in how best to apply it.

if you could consider the method above and tell me whether you guys think it can be improved or should i leave it as is

Please note - i am not trying to change for the sake of changing, it appears to be working well. i just want to understand more about combining news/fundamentals or any other elements that people think could be effective and may improve this.

thanks again and I welcome comments from anyone.

regards
Pipman

Looks like you are on the right track. From what you have said I would not change a thing. Remember that a good trading system is a simple one. Keep watching the videos and learn from Vahid and do what you are doing as far as your trading and you are well on your way. Remember if you recognize a strong signal on the 4HR chart it probably re-enforces the upcoming news. Don't concern yourself so much with the news right now as you are learning and just realize a strong signal is a high probability trade reguardless of the news. Some people trade and pay very little or even no attention to the news. No matter our method of trading we are not going to be right everytime. Just looking for our best chances.

I agree with Bill. We can trade profitably even without having any attention to news, because charts show the direction of the market and the changes that a new may have on it.

However, as we are offering a forex trading advisory on this site, I can not ignore the news and I have to keep the subscribers informed about the fundamentals, in case some of them are interested in it.

Wise advice from Bill Chillydog and Vahid.

Have a look at the news ticker on your terminal. You will see that there are so many items of news - thousands! Each and every item contributes in some way to market sentiment and that is the most important thing - market sentiment.
The charts are the only real indicator of sentiment as trying to analyse the possible reaction to news items is nearly impossible.

Eg.
Yesterday the Greek PM stated that they may look to the IMF for help if the European Union is not forthcoming.
So this news tells you what?
How does the IMF hold its funds, I don't know - do you? Full time analysts DO know though for sure.
I know that the IMF holds some of its funds in Gold and would guess that the rest is mainly in USD.
If the IMF helps to bail out Greece, that could possibly mean that IMF USD will be exchanged for Euros and that would strengthen the Euro and weaken the USD. Or is Greece's debt mainly in USD.
Although this information undoubtably has an effect on the markets, I don't know enough to be able to predict what effect it will have.

Other big news...http://finance.yahoo.com/news/UKs-Prude ... ?x=0&.v=21


Prudential intend to raise $20 billion with a rights issue. Are the majority of shareholders British? Will they use GBP to buy the new issue shares.? If so, Prudential will need to exchange those GBP to USD to fund the deal. That's quite an exchange deal and will (already has) sent the GBP down.
Of course, people in the know already knew about this deal and the downward movement started well in advance of the actual news release.


With most news items, we, the men in the street are not privy to the insider information and once the news is released, the market has already moved. It is usually too late to jump on the bandwagon.
Often, when the news filters through to us common people, there is a knee-jerk reaction because common traders don't realise that this news item has already been priced in. In fact there can often be an over-reaction which may present an opportunity for a reversal trade.

We can only really look at the charts and make our decisions based on the information that we have at hand.

I believe that if you trade using news, it should only be something that you keep in the back of your mind and maybe prevent you from entering a trade as opposed to making a decision based on the news.
Technical analysis is based solely on the charts and at least this is a level playing field. Everybody has access to the current chart movements. We know very little about what is actually happening to drive these markets.

I hope that this makes sense

Good luck



Keith

thanks guys
this really helps,

ultimately i was trying to work out whether to use news to support a posible trade once established technically.
so I gather that as long as my technical analysis is strong enough that negates the need to factor in news as from what is being said, the feeling is that the news is priced into the market anyway.
this helps me as i prefer the tech analysis rather than fundamentals,

all the best
Pipman