Hi Vahid,

Looking at the CADCHF weekly chart in relation to the trend following system, this appears to be a longer term forming trade setup on a downtrend. There is a large bearish engulfing candle, which has broken below the Bollinger Lower Band and MACD is going steadily down.
It looks though that there could soon be a pullback after the sharp drop down.

The last candle has just broken down through the support line I have drawn.

Looking further, the RSI is headed down to the 30 level for the first time since October 2008.
I see in March 2008 when RSI was below the 30 level for the first time the price was in the 0.9700 - 0.9750 range, for the second time in October 2008 price was at 0.9120 and then in Decemberr 2008 when RSI 30 was hit for the third time the price had dropped to the 0.8750 range even though RSI hardly went below 30.

Please would you comment on this.
Thanks and regards,
aquiagora

Hi,
I will go short but EMA 5 must cross EMA 12

Hi Any,

I see you are looking at the H1 chart and the EMA 5 and EMA 12 based on the EMA_RSI system I think, which has a good probability of success.
What would your T/P be?

Regards,
aquiagora

Hi,
I added 100 SMA and when price is above 100 SMA I go only long when price is below I go only short. 90% or so trades are profitable but not every pair is good for this system. Money management 1:1 but I see that better is 1:2 or 1:3 .

Hi, again,

That is a good success rate.
Is the addition of the 100 SMA to your EMA_RSI system? If so, it looks to be a good filter.
Which timeframe do you use?

As you know I abandoned the EMA_RSI system after some front testing because I was either missing too many good signals and catching too many false signals.

Regards,
aquiagora

Hi,

this is EMA RSI system with 100 SMA.
Only 1 hour time frame.
EUR/USD is the best. Analyze last few months. When the price is above 100 SMA only buy. Look at RSI - when EUR/USD is above 100 SMA - RSI goes below 50 for a while only and goes up again (above 50 level) it is a buy signal. The same is with down trend - EUR/USD below 100 SMA - RSI goes above 50 level for a while only then goes down again and it is a sell signal.
It works too with EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD and with few other currency pairs.
When price crosses 100 SMA down or up you may take a short or long position too, look at charts how important is 100 SMA.

Hi,
the sell signal was at 0.9983 and 60 pips or so.

Any,

I have been studying your system. Looks pretty reliable. I have a few questions.

Do you always wait for a retrace after the 5 crosses the 12 as you did on CAD/CHF trade.

Can you be more specific in which pairs you say this does not work for?

The current NZD/USD, is this a short trade in your eyes.

Thanks

Bill

Hi Bill,

The signal on CAD/CHF:
the price was below 100 SMA (100SMA is the trend indicator - price is below I go short only).
RSI crossed down the 50 level
the 5 crossed down the 12 (that was the first crossing- below 100SMA)
and after that the red candle closed.

Sometimes is enough when price is above 100MA and there is RSI breakout only without the 5 and the 12 crossing it works for EUR/USD.

I didn` t take this position because I took short GBP/USD (and about 50 pips my TP was 1.5152 strictly accurately it was not lower, that was my good luck) because I don’t want to take two trades at the same time based on the same system it is to risky for me now.

In my opinion it works the best for EUR/USD but I analyze every currency pair with spread not bigger than 7 or 8 pips and to have a few trade setups a week. I haven`t had a trade setup which was not profitable so far (20 or so good trade setups) except for EUR/GBP (you may see it in my earlier post ) I closed it manually because I saw that there was a down breakout on 4hrs chart, but sometimes I didn`t open a position because I was not very experienced with this system and I was afraid.
NZD/USD would be a good trade setup I think. I have two color 100 MA and it is down. The price may go up and touch the 100MA then may go down and we will have a great sell signal.
this is my GBPUSD

Where do you set your SL? Looks to me you don't have to go to the previous high. I think maybe you could set it above the candle that makes the 5 cross the 12 or maybe above the candle just before that.

Hi Bill,
my TP was triggered at 1.5152

The thing with the NZD/USD pair if you look at the 4 HR chart there is a buy signal according to your rules right now. Do you trade this on the higher frames or just the 1 HR.

Hi,
my GBP/USD was triggered 10 pips higher at 1.5162 sorry,
I use it only on 1hr. Look at 1hr NZD/USD is touching the 100MA it must break it first if no it will go down.

Yes on 4hrs is a buy signal but I have never used this system on 4hrs time frame.

Hello, I have been studying this system and it seems pretty reliable. However my question is, what do you do when the market is ranging and the 12 EMA and the 5 EMA cross each other over and over again, every couple hours it seems? Wouldn't a ranging market give lots of false signals?

Hi,
When the market is ranging the distance between two Bollinger Bands is usually small or the 100 SMA is flat and often changes its color, candles are weak and with shadows. Is better do nothing. I don`t think it is a problem.

Any,

I'm still looking at your system and I have another question for you. You said earlier you also enter trades when price crosses the 100 SMA. You must have some other criteria than just price crossing because this is a much lower win percentage trade. Do you have more criteria to enter on the cross or not? Thanks. Also I have been looking at the 4 HR charts with this system and it seems to be just as reliable as the 1 HR chart.

Bill

Hi,
it is not as reliable as the system but a big help is testing the 100 SMA then market should be strong

Hi Any,

Hah! I never imagined by posting about the CADCHF weekly chart that my interest in your EMA_RSI system would be rekindled.

Just to give it a go, today I entered a trade short GBPUSD at 1.52676 at 10:55 CET - so far so good.
If I had not got the FLMA short trade on EURUSD already set up, I would have gone short at around 10:00 CET even though RSI was below 50 but on the basis that it was below the 100 SMA.
The FLMA EURUSD trade has since been triggered and so far so good as well.

The original EMA_RSI and also the Snipers give good signals but I found them impractical because of the difficulty of monitoring enough pairs simultaneously over long periods of time.

Let's see how it pans out,
regards,
aquiagora

Hi Vahid,

After two weeks and maybe the bad news from Canada on Friday it looks like CADCHF could be entering into a longer term downtrend. The price is closer to the support line, MACD has just crossed below zero and RSI is ranging lower between 30/50 level.
MACD on the monthly chart has been going down the last three months.


This coming week's candle should give a confirmation.
Please would you comment on this and also whether or not the Fibonacci levels have been set in a realistic way even though it is not according to your trend guidelines where the levels should be set in the opposite direction, from the first high to the first higher low at the start of a potential uptrend.
Thanks and regards,
aquiagora