Do You Still Lose?
EUR-USD and Other Currency Pairs Indecision
Fundamentals:
We will not have any special news for today.
1. Euro against US Dollar (EUR-USD)
Most of the currency pairs and specially EUR-USD are in an indecision situation. EUR-USD went up but was stopped near the 1.4760 resistance and went down again. The daily says “up” but the 1.4760 resistance is very strong.
4hrs chart says that it is trying so hard to break the resistances and go up:
The last few candlesticks have tried so hard to break the 61.80% level and also the Bollinger middle band. It seems they should be able to do that finally. On the other hand, we also have to consider that we are still in the Saucer and Handle Pattern and the handle should break up. Although yesterday it looked that it will break down, it seems that Bulls are strong and will take the price up finally.
So what?
If you don’t have any position right now, just have an eye on the charts and if it could break the Bollinger middle band, go long. Then be careful because the 1.4760 resistance is on the way. If it could break the 1.4760 resistance too, then keep your long position.
If it goes down and breaks the support (the blue thick line), then go short.
2. US Dollar against Swiss Franc (USD-CHF)
By checking the USD-CHF, we can understand that if our prediction was correct about the EUR-USD or not. Additionally, sometimes one of these two currency pairs start moving to a direction while the other one is stuck. This tells you that the stuck one will go to the opposite direction very soon.
So lets check the USD-CHF.
The daily chart went up nicely but it was stopped at the 61.80% Fibonacci level. The yesterday candlestick was almost a big Bearish candlestick which means it was unsuccessful to break the 61.80% level and go up. Two things can happen then. It may try to go up again to test the 61.80% level or it may keep on going down which is the direction of the current trend. It can also goes up and down around the 61.80% level for few days. If I wanted to trade this right now, I would go short but I do not that before I check the smaller time frames.
The 4hrs shows that the price went up, broke the Bollinger middle band, then the 61.80% level and the trend line resistance but was stopped at the 1.1190 and went down. Now it is moving under the Bollinger middle band and want to go up but Bulls are weak. Bears are not strong enough too. So the USD-CHF is also in an indecision situation.
Generally, the Bears are still stronger and I think they will take the price down finally.
3. British Pound against US Dollar (GBP-USD)
It formed an inverted hammer yesterday which means it is in an indecision situation. Bears are still stronger than the Bulls. Now we have a resistance at 1.9750.
4hrs shows that Bulls are trying hard to take the control. The price is moving around the Bollinger middle band which is a risky area to enter to any new trade. I think it will break down finally.
4. US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD-JPY)
It formed an inverted Bearish hammer yesterday which means the Bears still have the control and are very strong. Today we should have a bearish candlestick finally.
In the 4hrs chart, the ascending triangle broke down. So it will go down.
5. British Pound against Japanese Yen (GBP-JPY)
I know those who lost the short opportunity are so eager to go long as soon as possible. This is a strong emotion that forces you to enter to a trade as soon as possible but any time I listened to it, I lost. Keep in your mind that when the market has been going down for long time, it doesn’t change its direction suddenly because it takes time that all the bears close their short positions. This is also true when the market has been going up for a long time.
GBP-JPY has been going down and now you see some Bullish signals but I believe it is still early to take a long position. You can do that intra-daily but not for swing trading.
The daily formed a big Doji with a long upper shadow yesterday. It means that the Bulls took the price up but the Bears took the control and pulled the price down. Now the Bulls are trying again but Bears are still strong.
The 4hrs looks so interesting. It broke the wedge up and then went down and tested the wedge and now is going up. This story happened in the Doji that you can see in the daily chart.
What does that mean?
It means it will go up. So you can go long according to the 4hrs but you have to have an eye on it because it is possible the it goes down again. If you act on time you can take some profit in case it goes down.
6. Euro against Japanese Yen (EUR-JPY)
GBP-JPY is a really volatile currency pair and it has a high spread too. EUR-JPY moves like GBP-JPY but in a smaller scale and its spread is lower. So if you are a new trader and you are afraid of losing, you can trade EUR-JPY.
The 4hrs shows that the price has not been able to break the wedge so far but it seems it is going up to do that.
The daily almost shows the same Doji that you saw with the GBP-JPY. You can go long according to the 4hrs if you act on time.
7. Australian Dollar against US Dollar (AUS-USD)
Nice pattern. It is going up now and will bounce down when it touches the resistance:
8. US Dollar against Canadian Dollar (USD-CAD)
The 4hrs shows a good opportunity to go short:
The daily also shows bearish signal but the daily trend is an uptrend. So it is against the market to go short. You can do that very carefully as an intra-daily trade. Be careful!
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