Do You Still Lose?
Do Not Fall in Love with One Currency Pair - Check As Many Currency Pairs As You Can
Yesterday was a hot day in the Forex market. Most of the currency pairs that were in an indecision situation, broke several supports and resistances and went up or down.
My predictions worked really good yesterday and I hope you were able to take the right position on time. I am not trying to advertise for myself here but you can see that I analyze the charts very carefully and I do not enter to any trade when I don’t see any good signal. If you follow my directions, your trades will be profitable in more than 95% cases. You can try it with a demo account or on the paper and see what I mean.
Let’s start analyzing the currency pairs and take the proper positions.
Fundamentals:
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Tip of the day:
Do not put all your eggs in one basket!
As you can see I am used to check several currency pairs everyday. It has an important reason.
When you work only on one currency pair, you have to use the maximum amount of the money that your account size allows you to trade, only for that currency pair. The problem is that if you take the wrong position and your stop loss becomes triggered, you may lose a lot.
You can trade several currency pairs but with a smaller amount of money. So if you make any mistake in some of your trades, the other trades will recover the amount of the money that you lose. And if you learn to predict correctly in more than 60% of the cases, you will be in profit.
1. Euro against US Dollar (EUR-USD)
As predicted yesterday, it went up but it could broke the 1.4750 resistance and went much higher. If you went long on time, now you should have about 130 pips in your hand. Now it is about 30 pips under the resistance that it could break on January 4th. So it will go up to test it and I think it will be broken too.
The daily chart says that currently the price is right under a resistance. I don’t know how strong this resistance is. It is possible that it breaks through it and goes up without any problem like the time that there is no resistance at all because the Bulls are so strong and have been able to break a very strong resistance (1.4750). It is also possible that the price goes up and down a little and then goes up to test the 1.4973 resistance.
I think the price will go much higher than this. So I recommend you not to go short in case you see any Bearish signal. If you went short, it should be intra-daily and for a very limited time. If you already have a long position, keep it and move your stop loss few pips under the 1.4750 resistance line (which can act as a support now).
2. US Dollar against Swiss Franc (USD-CHF)
As you see the USD-CHF always acts against the EUR-USD. Currently it is testing a support at 1.1021 and so it is possible that it goes up a little. I see some Bullish signals but it is not the time to take any long term long position.
The daily is strongly Bearish.
3. British Pound against US Dollar (GBP-USD)
It went up and I think your stop loss is trigged if you were short but the Bears took the control and the price went down again. It couldn’t break the Bollinger middle band in the 4hrs chart. After forming a Dark Cloud Cover pattern, it went up a little but the shape of the last candlesticks say that the Bulls do not have enough power and the price will go lower.
Yesterday I talked about the strong 38.20% Fibonacci level that acted as a very strong support on 17 August 2007. It shows that it is still strong and caused the price goes up during the last day.
4. US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD-JPY)
Yesterday it tried to break the ascending triangle and goes up but failed. Now it is trying so hard to break the triangle down. You can go short as soon as it goes lower than the triangle lower side.
The daily says that the 61.80% level is acting as a resistance and the price has not been able to break it so far. The daily also admits that the price will go lower.
5. British Pound against Japanese Yen (GBP-JPY)
The 4hrs chart didn’t have a significant change since yesterday. The price is still moving around the Bollinger middle band. It is completely in an indecision situation. The Bollinger bands has become close to each other which means the amount of the trades is decreasing. It seems Bulls and Bears are waiting for each other. The Bears still have their short positions and are hopeful that the price goes lower and make more money - GREED - and the Bulls don’t dare to buy yet because they think that the price will go lower - FEAR. The pattern that we have in the 4hrs chart says that the price will break down and Bears will enjoy more profit.
On the other hand, the daily chart shows a reversal signal. There are several Doji candlesticks with long upper and lower shadows. This pattern is called High Wave which is a reversal signal but it has to be confirmed.
A few days ago, the same pattern was formed at the top of the uptrend in USD-JPY and when a middle size Bearish candlestick formed, I realized that the price wants to break down. It went down nicely. We have to wait for confirmation. For example, if it forms at least a middle size Bullish candlestick today, it means Bulls are becoming stronger and the price will go up. The Bears will start closing their short positions to keep more profit.
In contrast, if it forms a Bearish candlestick with a big body that breaks the 213.25 support, it means the price will go lower.
6. Euro against Japanese Yen (EUR-JPY)
It broke the wedge and went up. Now it is fighting with a resistance that will cause the price goes down for a while. The same thing can happen in GBP-JPY too but the difference is that GBP has become weaker recently. So it is possible that EUR-JPY and GBP-JPY act differently.
The daily has been strongly Bullish for the past two days. It seems it will keep on going up but currently the price is right under a resistance that I really don’t know how strong it is.
7. US Dollar against Canadian Dollar (USD-CAD)
The price is at the end of a wedge. This wedge should break down.
In the daily chart, the price is under the 61.80% level that has been used to act as a strong resistance from Dec 5th to Dec 17th.
We have to wait until it breaks out of the wedge and then take the proper position:
8. British Pound against Canadian Dollar (GBP-CAD)
It is in an indecision situation. I expect it to go down very soon.
9. Euro against Canadian Dollar (EUR-CAD)
The 4hrs chart shows a reversal Bearish signal.
The daily is Bullish but it is under a resistance. We have to wait for one more day to see if the resistance can prevent the price from going up or not.
10. Australian Dollar against US Dollar (AUS-USD)
The 4hrs shows a Bearish reversal signal:
However the daily is Bullish strongly and is moving through the pathway that was predicted since several days ago.
Further Reading:
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Hi Forexoma,
I am so glad I found your website. I’ve been demo trading for a while now, but with mixed results as I am still learning how to analyze the charts.
It is now Friday the 11th of January and some of what you predicted for a couple of pairs seem to already have happened. Can you please tell me at what time you post your analisys, so that I can take a look at it on time.
Thanks alot.
wonderful analysis and good presentation but i get this mail , its like an after-trade like around 5pm of the analysed date which makes it history i dont know how to get this analysis for each day at around 5pm est. i m africa with gmt+1 timing.
Hi Forexoma,
What a great analisys!!! Why we don’t hear more about you?
I have same question as Talita: at what time you post your analisys?
Thank you very much for being there,
Milka